20220321-IMF-Indonesia_2022_Article_IV_Consultation-Press_Release_Staff_Report_Staff_Statement_and_Statement_by_the_Executive_Director_for_Indonesia_94页_6mb

报告摘要

Indonesia 2022 Article IV Consultation Summary

Core Content

The 2022 Article IV consultation with Indonesia by the IMF highlighted the country's economic recovery post-COVID-19, the effectiveness of its policy response, and the need for continued structural reforms. The consultation included a Press Release, Staff Report, Staff Statement, and a Statement by the Executive Director, all of which outlined the economic performance and policy recommendations.

Main Findings

Economic Recovery: Indonesia's economy is recovering at a brisk pace, with GDP growth projected at 5.4% in 2022 and 6.0% in 2023. The recovery was initially slowed by the Delta variant surge in mid-2021, but improved in the fourth quarter of 2021 and is expected to strengthen further in 2022-23.
Inflation: Inflation has remained lower than in other emerging and advanced economies, staying within BI's target corridor. It is expected to rise gradually in 2022, reaching close to the 3% midpoint of the target range.
Fiscal Policy: The authorities have begun to withdraw exceptional support measures, with the goal of restoring the pre-pandemic 3% of GDP budget deficit ceiling in 2023. The fiscal framework is considered credible and sustainable.
Monetary Policy: BI has maintained an accommodative monetary stance to support the recovery. The one-month interbank rate has been relatively stable, and the central bank is encouraged to end primary market purchases and allow the policy rate to signal monetary stance more clearly.
Financial Sector: The Indonesian financial sector remains stable, with intensive supervision necessary to mitigate risks from regulatory relief measures. Financial deepening and inclusion efforts are welcomed, including digitalization and credit information sharing.
Structural Reforms: Directors commended the authorities for their structural reform agenda, including the introduction of a carbon tax and measures to improve education, women's labor participation, and governance. These reforms are seen as crucial for long-term growth and productivity.
Climate Change: Indonesia is vulnerable to climate change and faces transition risks in moving toward a greener economy, including stranded assets and deforestation.

Key Policy Recommendations

Fiscal Policy: Restore the pre-pandemic 3% of GDP budget deficit ceiling by 2023, and continue the medium-term revenue strategy to finance high-priority spending.
Monetary Policy: Continue an accommodative stance until the recovery is more firmly entrenched, and ensure inflation and inflation expectations remain well anchored.
Financial Sector: Intensify supervision to ensure prudent lending and proactive provisioning, and continue promoting financial inclusion.
Structural Reforms: Accelerate structural reforms, including energy subsidy reforms, carbon pricing, and emission trading systems, to address pandemic scarring and support growth.

Economic Indicators

Indicator	2018	2019	2020	2021 Est.	2022 Proj.	2023 Proj.
Real GDP (percent change)	5.2	5.0	-2.1	3.7	5.4	6.0
Domestic demand	6.3	4.0	-3.8	2.9	4.7	6.1
Private consumption	5.1	5.2	-2.7	2.0	4.9	5.9
Government consumption	4.8	3.3	2.0	4.2	4.7	4.0
Gross fixed investment	7.9	4.5	-5.0	3.8	5.2	7.1
Net exports	-1.0	1.4	1.4	1.0	0.9	0.3
Consumer prices (end period)	3.2	2.6	1.7	1.9	3.5	3.2
Consumer prices (period average)	3.3	2.8	2.0	1.6	2.9	3.3
General government revenue	14.9	14.2	12.5	13.6	13.2	13.2
General government expenditure	16.6	16.4	18.6	18.2	17.1	16.2
General government balance	-1.8	-2.2	-6.1	-4.6	-4.0	-3.0
General government debt	30.4	30.6	39.8	42.8	42.9	42.9
Rupiah M2 (percent change)	6.3	6.5	12.5	13.9	8.4	9.0
Base money (percent change)	0.2	2.9	0.4	19.3	8.8	4.7
Current account balance (percent of GDP)	-2.9	-2.7	-0.4	0.4	-0.1	-1.5
Trade balance (percent of GDP)	-0.2	3.5	28.2	43.9	43.3	25.9
Gross reserves (in billions of USD)	120.7	129.2	135.9	144.9	159.1	169.9
Gross reserves (months of prospective imports)	7.1	9.7	7.9	7.4	7.3	7.1

Risks and Outlook

Risks: The balance of risks remains tilted to the downside, with potential for renewed infection surges, tighter global financial conditions, and spillovers from advanced economies' monetary policy changes.
Outlook: The recovery is expected to be self-sustaining, with the economic impact of the pandemic being relatively moderate compared to past crises. The outlook is improving, but risks from external factors and the Omicron variant are still present.

Conclusion

The IMF Executive Board commended Indonesia's response to the pandemic and its efforts to maintain macroeconomic and financial stability. They encouraged the continuation of structural reforms and fiscal discipline to ensure long-term economic growth and resilience.

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