2021-05-31-世界银行-Investment_in_Disaster_Risk_Management_in_Europe_Makes_Economic_Sense_269页_29mb

Summary of "Economics for Disaster Prevention and Preparedness" Background Report

Core Content

This report, titled Economics for Disaster Prevention and Preparedness, evaluates the economic benefits of disaster risk management (DRM) investments in Europe. It is part of a technical assistance project funded by the European Union, focusing on the cost-benefit analysis (BCA) of selected DRM interventions. The report applies the Triple Dividend of Resilience approach to assess how DRM investments can yield economic, social, and environmental benefits.

The report provides a comprehensive overview of methodologies used for DRM BCA, including the selection and analysis of case studies across various hazards such as flooding, earthquakes, extreme heat, droughts, wildfires, mass movement, volcanic eruptions, epidemics, oil spills, and nuclear/chemical risks. It includes figures, tables, and boxes that illustrate the data and analysis for each hazard.

Main Methodologies and Approaches

1. Triple Dividend of Resilience Approach

• First Dividend: Avoided losses due to reduced disaster impact.
• Second Dividend: Cost savings from reduced emergency response and recovery efforts.
• Third Dividend: Co-benefits, such as environmental and social improvements, which are independent of disaster occurrence.

This approach allows for a multi-dimensional evaluation of DRM investments, considering both direct and indirect economic impacts.

2. Case Study Analysis Methodology

• Selection Process: Case studies were selected based on their relevance to DRM and their availability of data.
• Analysis Framework: Each case study was analyzed using BCA metrics such as Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR), Net Present Value (NPV), and Economic Rate of Return (ERR).
• Key Indicators: The report includes data on exposure, vulnerability, and risk reduction for each case study.

Key Findings by Hazard

1. Flooding

• Structural Protection: Includes flood walls, levees, and gates. These measures are often cost-effective in reducing risk and damage.
• Nature-Based Solutions (NBS): Green infrastructure, such as wetland restoration and floodplain management, offers long-term benefits and co-benefits.
• Early Warning Systems (EWS): Provide timely alerts, reducing casualties and economic losses.
• Property-Level Protection (PLP): Small-scale interventions like flood barriers and elevation of ground levels are effective for individual properties.
• BCA Results: The BCR for flood protection projects is generally positive, indicating that investments in flood prevention are economically viable.

2. Earthquakes

• Seismic Strengthening: Enhances the resilience of buildings and infrastructure, reducing potential losses.
• Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS): Provide critical lead time for response and mitigation.
• Capacity Building: Training and preparedness programs improve response efficiency and reduce damage.
• BCA Results: Retrofitting public and private buildings yields significant BCRs, suggesting strong economic returns.

3. Extreme Heat

• Urban Heat Island (UHI) Effects: Mitigation strategies like green spaces and reflective surfaces reduce heat exposure.
• Heat Early Warning Systems (HEWS): Enable timely public health responses and reduce mortality risks.
• BCA Results: Investments in heat mitigation are cost-effective, with positive BCRs and NPVs.

4. Droughts

• Irrigation and Water Provision Systems: Help maintain agricultural and energy production during dry periods.
• Early Warning and Capacity Building: Enable proactive measures to reduce water shortages and related economic impacts.
• BCA Results: Drought preparedness investments are beneficial, with clear economic and social returns.

5. Wildfires

• Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) Management: Includes fuel breaks, firebreaks, and land use planning.
• Decision Support Tools: Aid in climate change adaptation and wildfire risk reduction.
• Cross-Border Coordination: Essential for effective wildfire response and preparedness.
• BCA Results: Fuel management and early warning systems yield high BCRs, making them economically advantageous.

6. Mass Movement / Landslides

• Resilient Roads: Prevent damage and improve safety in landslide-prone areas.
• Land Use Planning: Reduces exposure and vulnerability to landslides.
• Information and Cooperation Systems: Facilitate early detection and community response.
• BCA Results: Preventive investments in landslides are more cost-effective than reactive ones.

7. Volcanic Eruption

• Evacuation Routes: Critical for minimizing casualties during eruptions.
• Infrastructure for Response: Includes shelters and communication systems.
• BCA Results: Preparedness measures for volcanic risks are essential for reducing long-term impacts.

8. Epidemic and Disaster Health Preparedness

• Public Health Programs: Provide critical infrastructure and capacity for health emergencies.
• Equipment and Supplies: Include personal protective equipment (PPE) and medical facilities.
• BCA Results: Health preparedness investments have high BCRs, especially in the context of the pandemic.

9. Oil Spills

• Preventive Investments: Focus on vessels and equipment in coastal areas to minimize spill risks.
• BCA Results: Oil spill prevention is cost-effective, with clear economic benefits.

10. Nuclear and Chemical Risks

• Nuclear Power Plant Security: Prevents accidents and reduces radiological hazards.
• Hazardous Waste Cleanup: Mitigates environmental and health risks.
• BCA Results: These investments are essential for long-term safety and have significant economic returns.

11. Multi-Hazard

• Integrated Early Warning Systems: Provide alerts for multiple hazards simultaneously.
• Participatory Methodologies: Engage communities in climate adaptation and DRM planning.
• Local Green Investments: Support multi-hazard resilience with environmental and social co-benefits.
• BCA Results: Multi-hazard preparedness is economically beneficial and supports sustainable development.

Key Information

• The report was prepared in April 2021 and is part of the EU Civil Protection Mechanism.
• It is supported by the European Union and includes contributions from various experts and institutions.
• BCA metrics are used to evaluate the economic viability of DRM investments.
• Discount rates (3.5% for most case studies) are applied to estimate the present value of future benefits and costs.
• Co-benefits are emphasized, showing how DRM can have positive impacts beyond disaster reduction.
• The Triple Dividend of Resilience is a central framework for assessing DRM investments.

Conclusion

The report concludes that investment in disaster risk management in Europe is economically sensible. It highlights that DRM investments not only reduce the financial impact of disasters but also generate co-benefits that enhance social, environmental, and economic resilience. The use of BCA and Triple Dividend approach provides a robust framework for decision-making in DRM, supporting sustainable development and human security.