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Summary of Bush Administration Policy and Priorities on Russia

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the Bush administration's policy and priorities toward Russia in early 2001, based on interviews with officials and analysis of their public statements. It outlines the administration's general stance on Russia, its role in nonproliferation, its relations with Eurasian states, and the broader implications for US foreign policy.

Main Views on Russia

• Russia's Weakness: The Bush administration perceives Russia as a weak state due to its underdeveloped political and economic systems, which have failed to translate its vast resources into sustainable growth.
• Limited US Influence: Unlike the Clinton administration, which had a more active role in shaping Russia's development, the Bush administration believes that Russia's future is largely determined by its own choices.
• Integration as Goal: The administration still sees Russian integration into Western institutions as the ultimate objective, beneficial for both US interests and the Russian people.
• Nonproliferation Focus: Russia's nuclear arsenal remains a significant factor in US policy, but the focus has shifted from nuclear competition to preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and missile technology.
• Chechnya as a Concern: The administration emphasizes that Chechnya is a key issue in its Russia policy, as it reflects Russia's adherence to international human rights standards.

Key Issues in US-Russia Relations

1. Nonproliferation of WMD and Missile Technology

• Russia's role in nonproliferation is both positive and negative.
• The administration is concerned about Russia's involvement in Iran's nuclear program and its failure to prevent proliferation.
• It supports stricter standards for civilian nuclear technology than those outlined in the NPT regime.
• The administration is open to discussing security and defense issues with Russia, but not at the expense of US national interests.
• It is willing to consider legal procedures to withdraw from the ABM Treaty if necessary.

2. Russia and Eurasia

• Russia's influence in the region is secondary to US relations with other countries.
• The administration views NATO enlargement as a priority, with Russia being informed but not a major driver.
• Cooperation with Russia in the Balkans is seen as beneficial, especially through the Contact Group.
• US officials do not see Russia as a major competitor in its relations with India and China.
• Russian-Chinese relations are viewed as potentially problematic, but mainly as a function of US-China relations.
• India's democratic and economic progress is seen as a positive factor, and Russian-Indian ties are viewed favorably.

3. Russia and the Newly Independent States (NIS)

• The US supports the independence and sovereignty of the NIS, believing that these states have embraced their rights as sovereign nations.
• The administration is concerned with how Russia pursues its regional interests, especially in Central Asia.
• It is wary of Russian methods that may violate international norms, such as those used in Chechnya.
• The US encourages Russia to respect its neighbors' sovereignty and to engage in constructive cooperation.
• Russia's role in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is seen as positive, and the administration praises this effort.

Conclusion

• The Bush administration views Russia as a state with limited influence and potential, rather than a major strategic competitor.
• It sees Russia's role in US policy as contingent on how it aligns with broader US priorities.
• Russia's leadership is encouraged to focus on areas of mutual interest, such as nonproliferation and regional stability.
• The administration is open to cooperation with Russia, provided it respects international norms and human rights.
• A shift in US policy toward encouraging Russia's economic integration, rather than direct assistance, is expected to foster a more equal relationship between the two nations.

Key Takeaways

• Russia's Status: Seen as a weak and evolving state, not a traditional great power.
• Nonproliferation: A major concern, with Russia's role in Iran's nuclear program being a key issue.
• Regional Influence: Russia's impact on US policy is secondary to its relationships with other countries.
• Sovereignty and Norms: The US supports the independence of NIS and encourages Russia to respect international standards.
• Future Outlook: A more equal and cooperative relationship with Russia is anticipated, based on mutual interests and respect for sovereignty.