卡内基国际和平基金会-The-Effect-of-Low-Skilled-Labor-Migration-on-the-Host-Economy_28页_892kb

报告摘要

The Effect of Low-Skilled Labor Migration on the Host Economy: Summary

Core Content

This working paper examines the impact of low-skilled labor migration on the host economy, focusing on wages, employment, unemployment, fiscal effects, and policy implications. The author challenges the common perception that low-skilled migration negatively affects native workers, arguing that such fears are largely misplaced, while the positive effects on the broader economy are significant and often underestimated.

Main Points

Wage Effects
- The majority of empirical studies show that the initial net effect of low-skilled migration on native wages is small.
- Large adverse effects on wages are more associated with prior cohorts of low-skilled immigrants.
- In the long run, the negative effects on wages diminish as the economy adjusts and investment increases.
Complementarity and Specialization
- Low-skilled migrants often complement rather than compete with native workers, especially in tasks that require low skill.
- Migrants may increase the demand for skilled workers and help stimulate investment and economic growth.
Unemployment and Labor Market Flexibility
- Inflexible labor markets may experience higher unemployment due to the influx of low-skilled migrants, but flexible economies can absorb the labor shock more effectively.
- The assumption of perfect labor market flexibility is critical in the theoretical framework, as it determines whether the negative impact on wages is significant.
Fiscal Impact
- The fiscal impact of low-skilled immigration is small and may be positive or negative depending on the characteristics of migrants.
- Younger migrants who are employed tend to be net fiscal contributors.
Policy Implications
- Host countries should recognize the importance of low-skilled migrants and adjust their policies accordingly.
- Legal migration channels should be expanded, but they must be combined with the enforcement of labor regulations to ensure fair treatment of both migrants and natives.

Key Empirical Studies

Traditional Area Studies: These studies suggest minimal effects of low-skilled migration on wages. For example, a 1% increase in the immigrant share in the population causes no decline or a very small decline in wages.
Mariel Boatlift Case: David Card (1990) found that the influx of Cuban migrants to Miami had little effect on the wages or unemployment of less-skilled non-Cuban workers, indicating that the labor market can absorb such shocks.
Soviet Jews in Israel: The large-scale immigration of Soviet Jews (710,000 from 1989-1997) increased Israel's working-age population by 15%. Rachel Friedberg (2001) found no significant correlation between migrant influx and wage levels in Israeli professions, suggesting that migrants were not direct substitutes for natives.
Borjas' Critique: Borjas (2003) argues that the effects of low-skilled migration on wages are more significant, particularly for unskilled native workers. He found that a 1% increase in the migrant share reduces unskilled native wages by 0.3-0.4%.
Ottaviano and Peri's Rejection: Ottaviano and Peri (2008) challenge Borjas' findings, showing that low-skilled migration has small negative effects on wages in the short run but positive effects in the long run. They also argue that workers with high school or less are close to perfect substitutes, and that the overall impact on the economy is positive.

Theoretical Framework

The theory of migration and native wages assumes that migrants and natives are substitutes, leading to a temporary decrease in wages and an increase in the return to capital.
However, this theory is based on two key assumptions: that migrants and natives are substitutes, and that the stimulus to investment is too small or delayed to significantly affect wages.
Empirical evidence suggests that these assumptions are not valid, as migrants often complement native workers and investment responds quickly to migration shocks.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that low-skilled migration can have positive effects on the host economy, including economic growth, increased investment, and improved living standards. While there are concerns about the impact on native wages, these are often overstated and do not reflect the broader economic benefits. The author advocates for policies that recognize the value of low-skilled migrants and ensure that labor markets are flexible and fair.