2022-01-31-IMF-中国日益衰退的商业活力（英）_42页_1mb

China’s commercial dynamism has significantly declined since the impressive growth period of the 2000s, contributing to a slowdown in total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Using firm-level data from 2003 to 2018, this IMF working paper identifies six key facts:

1. The revenue share of young firms fell from around 70% to 30%.
2. The 3-year revenue growth of young firms relative to older incumbents slowed considerably.
3. Weaker life-cycle growth is linked to slower productivity growth and reduced investment in intangibles.
4. Younger and smaller firms face tighter capital constraints.
5. The responsiveness of capital growth to changes in the average product of capital weakened.
6. SOEs consistently had lower revenue and capital productivity than private firms.

SOE presence appears negatively correlated with business dynamism, particularly at the provincial level. Stronger SOE assets are linked to lower life-cycle growth and reduced capital reallocation efficiency among private firms. The authors argue that SOE reform could not only directly boost productivity through resource reallocation but also indirectly stimulate dynamism.