2012-12-06-奥纬咨询-Perspectives_on_Manufacturing_Industries_2_2012_28页_1mb

Summary of PERSPECTIVES ON MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES Issue 2/2012

Core Content

The document PERSPECTIVES ON MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES Issue 2/2012 focuses on the evolving landscape of manufacturing industries, particularly in the context of economic uncertainty, the implications of the Euro crisis, and the need for sustainable crisis management. It also highlights the role of innovation, especially in the connected trucks and wind energy sectors, as well as the changing demands from investors and the importance of strategic restructuring.

Main Viewpoints

• Economic Uncertainty is Persistent: A significant majority of executives and investors (91%) believe that another economic crisis would be more severe than the 2008/2009 crisis. This underscores the growing importance of crisis preparedness and management.
• Crisis Management as a Strategic Imperative: Companies are advised to develop long-term strategies, business designs, and operational measures to manage potential downturns effectively. Short-term cost-cutting measures are seen as insufficient for long-term resilience.
• Role of Basel III: The new banking regulations are increasing the cost of capital and making it harder for companies with poor creditworthiness to access financing. This requires companies to build stronger relationships with investors and demonstrate robust financial planning.
• Flexible Business Models are Critical: Companies must adapt their business models to be more flexible and responsive to market changes. This includes being open to third-party solutions and investing in innovative technologies.
• Investor Focus Shifts: Investors are now placing greater emphasis on a company’s financial plan, market strategy, and business design rather than just historical financial data. They are also more interested in long-term risk management and future-oriented assessments.

Key Information

1. Crisis Preparedness

• Companies are expected to prepare for multiple economic scenarios due to the increased volatility and uncertainty.
• Strategic realignment and portfolio optimization are seen as more important than in the past for overcoming future crises.
• Operational restructuring, such as production relocation and process optimization, is becoming more prominent.

2. Investor Behavior and Requirements

• 90% of investors consider a company’s financial outlook more important than past performance.
• Investors are analyzing market environment and future-oriented creditworthiness more thoroughly.
• 64% of financiers report more demanding approval processes, and 44% require higher collateral for loans.

3. Basel III Impact

• Basel III is increasing capital costs and tightening lending criteria.
• Companies with poor creditworthiness, high-risk environments, or weak business designs are particularly affected.
• Building trust with investors through clear communication is essential.

4. Euro Crisis and Machinery Industry

• The Euro crisis is expected to impact the machinery industry significantly, especially in the case of a Greek exit from the Eurozone or a full collapse of the Euro.
• A strong Euro could lead to modest growth in the industry, while a Greek exit would trigger a recession, with sales and revenues potentially dropping by double digits.
• A full Euro collapse could result in a more than 50% decline in sales and revenues, with major restructuring needed.

5. Connected Trucks Market

• The market for connected trucks is growing rapidly, with expectations of 5 million connected trucks on the road by 2020.
• Telematics-based solutions are expected to drive cost savings (up to 800 euros/month), improve logistics, and enhance competitiveness.
• OEMs must adopt customer-oriented, innovative solutions and collaborate with third-party providers to remain relevant.

6. Wind Energy Sector

• The wind-turbine market is maturing, with moderate growth expected in the coming years.
• Overcapacity and price pressure are likely to lead to consolidation and increased M&A activity.
• Chinese manufacturers are leading in growth, while non-Chinese OEMs have seen a 83% decline in average EBIT margin in 2011 compared to 2008.

7. Operational and Strategic Adjustments

• Companies must focus on innovation, productivity, and global value chain optimization to stay competitive.
• Strategic alignment between business design and financing concepts is crucial for long-term success.
• Chief Restructuring Officer (CRO) is recommended for managing complex restructuring efforts, though it is advised that the CRO and restructuring consultant should be from independent entities.

8. Conclusion

• The manufacturing industry is facing a new normal characterized by greater volatility, increased regulatory scrutiny, and changing investor expectations.
• Sustainable crisis management requires a holistic approach, combining strategic foresight, operational flexibility, and strong financial planning.
• The connected trucks and wind energy sectors are highlighted as areas where innovation and adaptability will be key to future success.