2008-09-17-皮尤-McCain_Gains_On_Issues,_But_Stalls_As_Candidate_Of_Change_76页_353kb

2008 US Presidential Election Summary

1. Overall Views of Candidates

   • Horserace Status: Voter preferences remain closely divided, with 46% supporting Obama and 44% supporting McCain as of mid-September 2008.
   • Likely Voters: The race is even tighter among likely voters (46%-46%), nearly deadlocked in battleground states.
   • Party Loyalty: Republicans and Democrats solidified support for their candidates, but independent voters leaned marginally toward McCain.

2. McCain’s Gains on Issues

   • Support Increases: Strong support for McCain rose from 17% to 25%, particularly among Republicans and conservative voters.
   • Key Issues: Reduced Obama’s lead on issues like reducing lobbyists’ influence, terrorism, and foreign policy.
   • New Direction Comparison: Independents view McCain as likely to take a different direction from Bush, while 46% of voters overall believe he would continue Bush policies.

3. McCain and Palin’s Roles

   • Sarah Palin’s positive reception among conservatives and white evangelical Protestants provided a boost to McCain.
   • Young voters reacted negatively to Palin; weekly worship attendance was high among white Catholics for McCain.

4. Palin’s Favorability

   • High among Republicans (85%) and white evangelicals; liberals and moderate Republicans gave lower ratings.
   • Independent voters gave moderately positive ratings to Palin, but expressed similar levels of support to Biden.

5. McCain’s Demographic Support

   • Leads among men, whites, and upper-income voters; Obama leads among women, youth, African Americans, and lower-income voters.
   • Higher among Gulf War veterans and white Catholics.

6. 47% Gap in Experience Perception

   • Over 70% of Republicans view Obama as inexperienced, compared to ~45% of all voters.
   • This gap is a key factor in Republican support for McCain as the more qualified candidate.

7. Religious Impacts

   • Critical voter group religion affects candidate perceptions heavily, especially among white evangelicals who favor McCain.
   • 13% of voters identify Obama as Muslim; half see little change from Bush under McCain.

This summary highlights the near tie in overall support while revealing significant partisan and demographic divides that form the underpinnings of the election dynamics.