世界银行-2025年4月商品市场展望（英）-2025.4_68页_1mb

Commodity Markets Outlook: April 2025 Summary

Introduction

Commodity prices are projected to decline significantly, driven by weakening global economic growth and expanding supply, particularly in oil markets. The report highlights record volatility in commodity markets since the pandemic, with shorter, sharper cycles likely marking a structurally turbulent era.

Key Findings

1. Price Projections:

   • Overall commodity prices expected to fall 12% in 2025 and 5% in 2026, reaching a 6-year low.
   • Oil prices will decline the most, exerting downward pressure on the aggregate index.
   • About half of 46 commodities are projected to decrease by over 10%, many due to trade tensions and supply growth.

2. Volatility Trends:

   • Commodity price volatility has reached the highest level in at least half a century.
   • Post-pandemic cycles are shorter and sharper, with durations nearly halved compared to pre-pandemic trends (average cycle length: ~45 months).

3. Market Dynamics:

   • Industrial demand is slowing due to trade tensions and weaker economic activity.
   • Energy transition is driving sustained demand for critical minerals (e.g., copper, lithium), while traditional commodity demand weakens in developed economies.
   • Agricultural prices are expected to decline but beverages (e.g., cocoa, coffee) face upward pressure due to supply shortages.

4. Supply and Demand:

   • Oil supply growth is projected to outpace demand in 2025, leading to a surplus.
   • OPEC+ production cuts may be partially reversed if geopolitical tensions ease, adding downside risk.
   • Extreme weather and trade barriers are key drivers of localized supply shocks.

Risks & Opportunities

• Downside Risks:

  • Sharper-than-anticipated global economic slowdown due to heightened trade tensions or prolonged financial tightening.
  • Full unwinding of OPEC+ supply cuts, leading to oversupply in oil markets.
  • Reduced investment in key sectors like renewable energy and electric vehicles, limiting demand for metals.

• Upward Risks:

  • Escalation of geopolitical tensions disrupting oil and gas supplies (e.g., conflicts, sanctions).
  • Extreme weather events causing spikes in agricultural and energy prices.
  • Lasting rollbacks of trade restrictions, boosting global growth and demand.

Conclusion

The post-pandemic era is characterized by increased volatility and shorter cycles in commodity markets. While prices are expected to remain below pre-pandemic levels, risks are tilted downward unless global growth strengthens. Policymakers must address structural factors like energy transition, climate resilience, and trade fragmentation to mitigate future market disruptions.

Note: This summary is derived from the World Bank report and reflects the central findings in a concise, markdown-compatible format.