2007年-世界发展银行全球_Romania___Poverty_Monitoring_Analytical_and_Advisory_Assistance_Program_First_Phase_Report_Fiscal_Year_2007_90页_876kb

Romania Poverty Monitoring Analytical and Advisory Assistance Program Summary

Core Content

This report is the first phase of a three-year Poverty Monitoring Analytical and Advisory Assistance (AAA) Program for Romania, jointly prepared by the Ministry of Labor, Family, and Equal Opportunities (MLFEO), the National Institute of Statistics (NIS), and the World Bank. It focuses on analyzing poverty and inequality trends from 1995 to 2006, and outlines the implications of using relative and absolute poverty measures for policy-making and monitoring.

Main Findings

1. Absolute Poverty Reduction

   • Absolute poverty in Romania fell significantly from 35.9% in 2000 to 13.8% in 2006, driven by economic growth averaging 5-6% annually.
   • Rural areas still have higher poverty rates (22.3% in 2006) compared to urban areas (6.8% in 2006).
   • Regional disparities persist, with the North-East region being over four times poorer than Bucharest in 2006.

2. Inequality Trends

   • Romania maintains moderate inequality by international standards.
   • Inequality levels in 2005 were lower than Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Ireland, and the UK, and comparable to EU-25 and EU-15 averages.
   • Inequality has remained relatively stable since 2000, with minimal changes in relative poverty rates.

3. Persistent Poverty Pockets

   • Despite overall progress, deep pockets of poverty remain, particularly among:
     • The Roma population (4 times more likely to be poor than the rest of the population in 2006)
     • Youth (15-24 years old)
     • Less educated individuals
     • Unemployed and self-employed in agriculture
     • Children (0-14 years old)
   • The poverty risk for children is three times higher in rural areas than in urban areas.
   • Rural areas remain highly vulnerable, with 75% of poor children living there.

4. Economic Growth and Poverty Dynamics

   • Economic growth has been the main driver of poverty reduction.
   • Growth incidence curves show that the benefits of growth have been relatively evenly distributed across income groups.
   • Agricultural workers and farmers have benefited more from growth, with consumption increasing by over 55% on average.
   • Pensioners and employees have seen the highest declines in total poverty.
   • Unemployed and self-employed in agriculture have lower consumption growth than the national average.

5. Poverty and Social Inclusion

   • The National Antipoverty and Social Inclusion Plan (2004) and Joint Inclusion Memorandum have been key strategies.
   • The new National Commission for Social Inclusion aims to revise the Poverty and Social Inclusion Monitoring System to better align with EU priorities.

6. Methodological Differences

   • Relative poverty is defined as income below 60% of the national median disposable income.
   • Absolute poverty is measured based on consumption levels, including a basic needs basket.
   • The two measures complement each other rather than contradict, as they capture different aspects of poverty.
   • The absolute poverty line is more responsive to economic changes and provides a clearer picture of welfare improvements.

Key Information

• Poverty Line Values (2006):

  • Relative Poverty Line:
    • 300 RON per equivalent adult
    • 450 RON for a family of 2 adults without children
    • 539 RON for a family of 2 adults and one child
    • 629 RON for a family of 2 adults and 2 children
  • Absolute Poverty Line:
    • 210 RON per equivalent adult
    • 392 RON for a family of 2 adults without children
    • 479 RON for a family of 2 adults and one child
    • 564 RON for a family of 2 adults and 2 children

• Growth and Poverty Projections (2007-2010):

  • If GDP per capita growth remains at 5-6% annually, absolute poverty could fall to 6.6% by 2010.
  • Even with a weaker growth rate of 2%, poverty could still drop to 8.9%.

• Key Vulnerable Groups:

  • Children and youth have the highest poverty risk.
  • Roma face severe deprivation with high unemployment, poor housing, and health.
  • Informal employment, especially in agriculture, is strongly linked to poverty.

• Policy Implications:

  • Sustained and equitable growth is essential for continued poverty reduction.
  • Targeted social safety nets and redistributive policies are needed to address groups not benefiting from growth.
  • The future Monitoring System should include both EU and national indicators, with an emphasis on vulnerability, migration, and multidimensional poverty.

Structure of the Report

• Chapter I: Analyzes poverty and inequality trends using both relative and absolute measures.
• Chapter II: Explores the impact of economic growth on poverty and presents projections for 2007-2010.
• Annexes: Include tables and graphs from the DECRG Computational Tool, poverty maps, and NIS data.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes that economic growth has been central to reducing absolute poverty in Romania, but targeted interventions are necessary to address persistent pockets of poverty, especially in rural areas, among children, youth, the Roma, and the less educated. It calls for a balanced approach combining sustainable growth with effective social policies to ensure equitable poverty reduction.