2025-06-13-花旗集团-阿奇立克公司（ARCLK）_中东欧_中东和非洲地区要点_14页_222kb

Top Call & Key Rating Changes

• Arcelik AS (ARCLK.IS): Upgraded to Buy/HR from Neutral/HR; target price TL170 (up >50% YoY), driven by expected margin/demand recovery in next 12m and EBITDA guidance of 6.5% YoY.
• Prosus NV (PRX.AS): FY25 Core Headline EPS expected to grow 53.9%-63.2% YoY, exceeding consensus, leading to positive share price outlook.
• LPP SA (LPPP.WA): Q1 net profit and sales above estimates, hampered by reduced space/sales guidance.
• PGE (WPP.WA): 2025-2035 capex at ZL235bn, EBITDA target ZL17.6bn; shares likely to sell off.
• CCC (CCCP.WA): Q1 profit above expectation but operating cash flow weak.
• Pepco Group NV (PCOP.WA): Finalizes Poundland disposal.

Sectors

• Auto Manufacturers: EU OEMs unlikely to see investment upside soon; tariff concerns dominate.
• Financials: Highlighted buybacks (Tikehau, BNP etc.), noting when support may cease; European leisure (Whitbread, IHG), UK China RevPAR reads cautious.
• Global Flights: China flights up, US down; Europe up.

Strategy & Economics

• EM Bond Strategy: Short USD; favor KRW, INR, IDR (but not CNH, SGD); overweight SA/Indonesia bonds.
• Nordic Economics: Norges Bank likely to keep rates on hold until later in 2025.
• Romania/Serbia Economics: Inflation pressures persist, policy rates likely to stay or ease soon.
• CEEMEA Economics Week Ahead: Forecast for upcoming economic data.

Commodities

• Oil: Prices bearish from current levels; recommend hedging ahead of potential nuclear deal developments.
• EM Corporate Credit: Value in Kosmos Energy curve (spread compression target 300bp).

Fixed Income & FX

• European Rates: Asymmetrically dovish risk; suggest August ECB €STR hedge and Z5/Z6 flatteners.
• Global EM Corporate Credit: Kosmos Energy view (barrel half full).

Corporate Access

• Upcoming Events: Citi Saudi Conference, CEE Banks Trip, GenAI Summit, Healthcare Conference, etc.

Key Takeaways: Arcelik & Prosus Upgrade, LPP SA & PGE Performance, EM Autonomy Uncertainty, Financials Buybacks, Leisure Moderation, Oil Downgrade, EM Credit Focus, Nordic/EMEA Economic Outlook