IMF-吉尔吉斯斯坦_国有企业的财政风险（英）-2025.6_19页_1mb

报告摘要

Kyrgyz Republic: Fiscal Risks from State-Owned Enterprises

Core Content

This document analyzes the fiscal risks associated with state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the Kyrgyz Republic, focusing on both aggregate and firm-level perspectives. It highlights the significant role of SOEs in the economy and the potential risks they pose to public finances.

Main Views

Aggregate Perspective

SOEs' Economic Footprint: SOEs in the Kyrgyz Republic account for a substantial share of the economy, with total assets representing 50% of GDP and revenues 15% of GDP in 2023.
Liabilities: The total liabilities of the largest 28 SOEs amounted to approximately 25% of GDP in 2022 and 2023, with the majority concentrated in the energy sector (about 90% of total non-financial SOE liabilities).
Fiscal Risks: Contingent liabilities and implicit fiscal risks are a concern, especially when SOEs operate at a loss or require significant government support.
State Guarantees: Although there is no outstanding state-guaranteed debt, the Ministry of Finance’s on-lending of external loans implies de facto guarantees, which could increase fiscal exposure.
Sectoral Breakdown: Energy sector SOEs have the highest debt-to-asset ratio (97% in 2023), indicating elevated solvency risks. Other sectors like transportation and mining have lower debt burdens.

Firm-Level Analysis

Financial Health Check: The IMF's SOE Health Check Tool is used to assess risks based on profitability, liquidity, and solvency indicators.
Risk Categories: Risk levels are categorized into five tiers, with thresholds based on common benchmarks and adjusted for SOE-specific conditions.
Key Financial Indicators:
- Profitability: Return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) are critical metrics. Energy SOEs like NESK and EPS show significantly lower ROA and ROE compared to international peers.
- Liquidity: The current ratio and quick ratio are used to assess the ability to meet short-term obligations. Kyrgyztelecom and NESK have low liquidity ratios, indicating potential short-term financial strain.
- Solvency: Debt-to-asset and debt-to-equity ratios are used to evaluate long-term financial stability. Energy SOEs have high solvency risks, particularly due to high debt levels and low profitability.
Performance of Key SOEs:
- Energy Sector: NESK and EPS have persistently low profitability and high solvency risks. Chakan GES also faces challenges, with a deteriorating rating due to increased debt.
- Telecommunications: Kyrgyztelecom shows some improvement in risk ratings but still faces liquidity concerns.
- Mining and Transportation: SOEs in these sectors generally show better financial performance, with lower risks and improved profitability and solvency metrics.

Key Information

Total Liabilities: 25% of GDP for the largest 28 SOEs in 2022 and 2023.
Energy Sector Dominance: Approximately 90% of non-financial SOE liabilities are in the energy sector.
Debt-to-Asset Ratio: The energy sector has a debt-to-asset ratio of 97% in 2023, which is significantly higher than other sectors.
Fiscal Support: SOEs contribute about 1.4% of GDP to the budget, with direct tax and dividends accounting for 0.5% and 0.9% of GDP respectively.
National Investment Fund (NIF): The NIF was established in 2024 to improve SOE efficiency and growth, but it requires careful implementation to avoid fiscal risks due to weak governance and financial management.
Tariff Issues: Below-cost residential tariffs in the energy sector are a major contributor to low profitability and increased fiscal risks.
International Comparison: Kyrgyz Republic's energy SOEs perform worse than their international counterparts in terms of profitability and solvency, with significantly lower ROA and ROE.

Conclusion and Recommendations

Need for Oversight: Strengthening SOE oversight and financial transparency is essential to mitigate fiscal risks.
Tariff Reform: Continued reform of tariffs to reach full cost recovery by 2030 is crucial for improving profitability in the energy sector.
Fiscal Discipline: Ensuring that the NIF operates with transparency and accountability, and avoiding overlapping responsibilities with the State Agency for the Management of State Property (SPMSP), is necessary to prevent fiscal risks.
Level Playing Field: Avoiding preferential treatment of SOEs and maintaining a fair competitive environment for all businesses is important for long-term fiscal stability.

Summary of Key Financial Indicators

Indicator	Description	Risk Thresholds
ROA	Measures profitability relative to assets	> 8% (low risk), 8% - 4% (low-moderate), 4% - 0% (moderate), 0% - -5% (moderate-high), < -5% (high)
ROE	Measures profitability relative to equity	> 16% (low risk), 16% - 8% (low-moderate), 8% - 0% (moderate), 0% - -10% (moderate-high), < -10% (high)
Cost Recovery	Measures ability to cover operating expenses	> 1.5 (low risk), 1.5 - 1.3 (low-moderate), 1.3 - 1.0 (moderate), 1.0 - 0.8 (moderate-high), < 0.8 (high)
Current Ratio	Measures ability to meet short-term liabilities	> 2.0 (low risk), 2.0 - 1.5 (low-moderate), 1.5 - 1.3 (moderate), 1.3 - 1.0 (moderate-high), < 1.0 (high)
Quick Ratio	Measures ability to meet short-term liabilities with most liquid assets	> 1.2 (low risk), 1.2 - 1.0 (low-moderate), 1.0 - 0.8 (moderate), 0.8 - 0.7 (moderate-high), < 0.7 (high)
Debt to Assets	Measures reliance on debt financing	< 30% (low risk), 30% - 50% (low-moderate), 50% - 80% (moderate), 80% - 100% (moderate-high), > 100% (high)
Debt to Equity	Measures debt relative to equity	< 50% (low risk), 50% - 100% (low-moderate), 100% - 150% (moderate), 150% - 200% (moderate-high), > 200% (high)
Debt to EBITDA	Measures ability to service debt	< 1.5 (low risk), 1.5 - 2.0 (low-moderate), 2.0 - 3.0 (moderate), 3.0 - 5.0 (moderate-high), > 5.0 (high)
Interest Coverage	Measures ability to cover financing costs	> 2.0 (low risk), 2.0 - 1.5 (low-moderate), 1.5 - 1.2 (moderate), 1.2 - 1.0 (moderate-high), < 1.0 (high)
Cash Interest Coverage	Measures ability to cover financing costs with cash flow	> 3.0 (low risk), 3.0 - 2.0 (low-moderate), 2.0 - 1.5 (moderate), 1.5 - 1.0 (moderate-high), < 1.0 (high)

Recommendations

Enhance Financial Transparency: Ensure all SOEs are transparent in their financial reporting and operations.
Strengthen Governance: Improve governance frameworks and financial management practices within SOEs.
Implement Tariff Reforms: Continue efforts to reform tariffs in the energy sector to reach full cost recovery by 2030.
Improve Liquidity Management: Address liquidity issues through better working capital management and access to market financing.
Ensure Fiscal Discipline: Implement strict fiscal oversight to prevent fiscal risks and ensure that SOEs operate within sustainable limits.
Promote Competitive Environment: Avoid preferential treatment of SOEs and ensure a level playing field for all businesses.

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