世界银行-索马里经济最新情况_促进国内收入动员——加强服务提供_加强社会契约（英）-2025_71页_37mb

Somalia Economic Update Summary

Overview

The Somalia Economic Update highlights major economic developments, medium-term outlook, and policy recommendations for domestic revenue mobilization (DRM). Despite progress, Somalia faces significant challenges limiting economic growth, service delivery, and fiscal sustainability.

Macroeconomic Developments

• Growth: The economy grew modestly at 4.0% in 2024. Growth is expected to remain between 3-4% in the medium-term due to reforms from the HIPC Completion Point, but faces risks from aid uncertainty, climate shocks, insecurity, and global volatility.
• Inflation: Inflation moderated in 2024, averaging 5.5%, driven by falling global prices and improved domestic supply chains.
• Fiscal Performance: The FGS achieved a small surplus in 2024, but domestic revenue-to-GDP remains low (3%). Revenue collection has improved due to customs and tax reforms, but remains heavily reliant on external grants and donor funding.
• External Sector: Somalia's trade deficit persisted due to heavy reliance on imports. EAC membership offers opportunities but requires careful management to mitigate revenue challenges from the Common External Tariff (CET).
• Poverty & Service Delivery: Poverty remains high (54% of population), and access to services (health, education) is low, particularly among the poor and marginalized groups. Various aid surges (humanitarian, budget support) have been critical for economic and social stabilization.

Domestic Revenue Mobilization Challenges & Progress

• Current Situation: DRM is constrained by low revenue-to-GDP ratios (3% FGS, 3.2% unionized FMS, total 4.2%), low tax-to-GDP (2.2%), high informality, weak tax compliance, and limited administrative capacity.
• Opportunities for Improvement: Improving tax collection systems (customs automation, sales tax implementation, personal income tax), broadening the tax base (income tax, corporate tax, excise duties, resource revenues), simplifying procedures, enhancing transparency, and reducing tax evasion/refugees are key opportunities.
• EAC Impact: Accession to the EAC presents both opportunities (larger market) and risks (potential revenue shortfall from CET implementation). Coordinated, predictable, and efficient reforms are needed to leverage benefits.
• Other Gains: Non-tax revenues (fees, charges) vary significantly, providing some revenue diversity but lacking predictability. Good progress has been made in enacting revenue legislation and improving administration.
• Parallel System: Al-Shabab taxation remains a significant factor in some areas, potentially straining relationships with traditional government authorities.

Policy Recommendations

1. Service Delivery & Social Contract: Improve service provision (especially health, education, and social protection), foster partnerships with non-state actors, and enhance accountability to build trust.
2. Role of the State: Clearly define public service roles for federal, state, and local governments, and communicate these boundaries publicly.
3. Functional Assignments: Define precisely which government level delivers each service.
4. Financing Functions: Understand the cost of services at each level and identify funding gaps, including domestic revenue, transfers, and off-budget ODA.
5. Fiscal Federalism: Establish legally binding rules for tax policy, administration, and intergovernmental revenue-sharing.
6. Non-State Actors: Coordinate efforts with private sector, NGOs, and local communities, understanding their financing capacities.
7. Tax Policy & Administration: Implement reforms to broaden the tax base (customs, income, consumption, excise), increase compliance (simplify procedures, enforce registration/payment), improve revenue administration (automation, digitalization), and combat tax fraud/corruption.
8. Tax Morale: Improve taxpayer communication, education, and trust in the system by linking revenue to public service delivery.
9. Customs Reforms: Harmonize tariffs and valuation across ports, fully implement SOMCAS, align legislation with EAC standards, and rationalize customs tax expenditures.
10. Income Tax Reforms: Implement the new Income Tax Law harmonized across the Federation, establish rules for intergovernmental tax sharing, and regulate tax expenditures through legislation.
11. Indirect Taxation: Develop and implement a coherent strategy for excises and a comprehensive sales tax system.

Conclusion

Sustained reforms in DRM, supported by improved public service delivery and enhanced institutional coordination (especially fiscal federalism), are crucial for building a stronger state, reducing dependence on aid, and achieving long-term economic stability and development in Somalia.