2025-05-20-Jefferies-2025年4月月度比特币报告_20页_1mb

Summary of Jefferies Equity Research: USA Digital Infrastructure

Overview

This report from Jefferies, dated May 20, 2025, analyzes the Bitcoin mining sector in the United States, focusing on companies like Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. (MARA) and Core Scientific Inc. (CORZ). It covers key metrics, market trends, risks, and investment outlooks, highlighting the impact of Bitcoin price, network hash rate, regulatory developments, and growth opportunities.

Key Stock Analysis

• Marathon Digital (MARA): Rated HOLD with a price target of $18. Key risks include rising network hash rate and BTC volatility, while upside potential stems from increasing miner profitability and infrastructure expansion. DCF model projects moderate growth with a price target based on recurring free cash flow.

• Core Scientific (CORZ): Rated BUY with a price target of $16. The focus is on capturing AI-driven high-performance computing (HPC) demand, with strong potential for revenue growth driven by HPC hosting. DCF models show substantial upside under favorable scenarios, but risks include HPC execution challenges and BTC volatility.

Market Trends for Bitcoin Mining

• BTC profitability declined in April due to a 6.6% rise in network hash rate, but expectations are improving for May amid market rallies.
• Strategic developments include American Bitcoin's merger with GRYP (ticker ABTC), potentially boosting sector visibility and regulation benefits. New Hampshire's Bitcoin reserve aims to support price stability and miner revenues.
• Institutional interest grows with initiatives like SEC-considered broker-dealer facilitation of Bitcoin trading, increasing accessibility and transaction volumes.
• Public mining companies mined less BTC in April (3,277 shares) compared to March, with MARA leading declines due to hash rate changes.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue and margins show fluctuations: Bitcoin-revenue per EH/s dipped to $45,457/day in April, while profit margins improved for some firms over time.
• Financial projections indicate moderate growth for MARA and CORZ, with DCF models suggesting achievable valuations through 2025-2026, but sensitivity to BTC and hash rate changes.
• Growth is tied to BTC price scenarios; for instance, rising BTC could boost miner revenues, while hash rate increases threaten margins.

Investment Risks and Opportunities

• Opportunities: Expansion into owned data centers, strategic partnerships, and favorable regulation could drive recurring revenue and stability.
• Risks: Regulatory interventions, energy costs, international competition, and reliance on BTC price stability pose significant threats. Downside scenarios include severe BTC declines or hash rate explosions, reducing profitability.
• Sustainability and ESG factors are critical, with companies urged to adopt renewable energy sourcing and efficient infrastructure.

Conclusion

The sector presents high-growth potential amid evolving crypto regulations and AI demand, but investors must weigh risks associated with volatility and competitive dynamics. Both MARA and CORZ warrant attention for their unique roles in digital asset and HPC mining.