2024-12-16-世界银行-发展中经济体的GDP就业弹性（英）_43页_1mb

GDP-employment Elasticities across Developing Economies

Abstract

This paper examines country and sector GDP-employment elasticities. GDP elasticity of employment varies significantly across countries and sectors. The results show employment elasticities for manufacturing and services are mostly below 1.0, ranging from negative values to above 0.50. Agriculture exhibits more negative elasticities. Productivity gains are associated with reduced informality. Correspondence between elasticity and informality remains inconclusive. The SAM multiplier approach significantly overestimates elasticities. The average annual elasticity method has superior predictive power.

Key Points

• Employment Elasticity: Employment growth is less than GDP growth in manufacturing and services due to productivity gains. Agriculture shows more negative elasticities.
• Predictive Power: The average annual elasticity method outperforms regression, growth decomposition, and SAM methods.
• Informality: Productivity improvements reduce informal employment, especially in agriculture.
• Sector Comparison: Services have higher elasticities than manufacturing. Agriculture elasticity negatively correlates with informality.

Conclusion

GDP-employment elasticities are critical for development policy. Findings highlight variations across countries and sectors. Targeted interventions focusing on productivity and formalization can improve employment outcomes. Further research should analyze sub-sector and occupation-level elasticities.