20180605-广发证券_香港_-A-Share_Shipping_Sector_2页_394kb

报告摘要

A-Share Shipping Sector Summary

Core Content

This report from GF Securities (Hong Kong) provides an analysis of the current investment value of the A-Share shipping sector, focusing on the competitive landscape, pricing dynamics, and the potential for recovery. The analysis is led by Ou Yafei, with contributions from Cao Yifeng.

Main Views

1. Shipping Price Momentum Has Decreased

Prior to 2008, shipping freight rates showed strong growth due to pricing advantages and cargo volume.
Over the past decade, freight rates have weakened significantly.
The decline in price momentum is attributed to both external and internal factors.

2. External and Inherent Factors Affecting the Sector

Externally: Global economic slowdown has reduced container shipping demand, while excess shipbuilding capacity has accelerated the new ship delivery cycle.
Inherently: The shipping industry operates under perfect competition due to low industry concentration and ships' long service lives (up to 20 years), leading to repeated overcapacity issues.

3. The Role of Self-Discipline in the Sector

With demand unlikely to outpace expectations, self-discipline among shipping companies is crucial for improving freight rates.
Past supply contractions were passive, but future reductions will require more active participation from industry participants.

4. Container Shipping as a Subsector with Potential for Recovery

Container shipping is the only subsector that has achieved an oligopoly structure, with a CR10 of over 80% and CR4 of nearly 60%.
Industry alliances have helped consolidate major east-west shipping routes, pushing smaller players to less important south-north routes.
Post-2015-2016 downturn, surviving companies have shown resilience and some have become "national container shipping companies" through M&A.
The report suggests that container shipping may lead the recovery from price wars, with a shift toward stability and improved freight rate momentum.

5. Changes in Competitive Landscape

The container shipping industry has seen rapid changes in recent years, with increasing industry concentration and bargaining power of large ship owners.
These changes influence the speed of capacity deployment across the industry.
The report emphasizes the need to pay closer attention to shifts in industry concentration.

Key Information

Sector Ratings

Positive: Expected to outperform the benchmark (Hong Kong Hang Seng Index) by more than 10%.
Neutral: Expected relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%.
Cautious: Expected to underperform the benchmark by more than 10%.

Company Ratings

Buy: Expected to outperform the benchmark by more than 15%.
Accumulate: Expected to outperform the benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15%.
Hold: Expected relative performance ranges between -5% and 5%.
Underperform: Expected to underperform the benchmark by more than 5%.

Risks

Trade friction affecting demand.
Sharp increases in oil prices.
Accelerated delivery of new ships.
Increase in new ship orders.
Changes in shipping alliances.
Return of idle capacity to the market.

Analyst Certification

The views expressed in the report reflect the personal opinions of the analysts.
No part of the analysts' remuneration is directly or indirectly linked to the recommendations in the report.

Disclosure of Interests

GF Securities (Hong Kong) and its affiliates do not hold any shares of the securities mentioned.
No investment banking relationships with the companies in the past 12 months.
Analysts and their associates do not serve as officers of the companies and have no financial interests in the securities.

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.
The report is intended for GF Securities (Hong Kong) clients only.
No liability is accepted for any loss arising from the use of the report.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Recipients should obtain professional advice before making investment decisions.