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Summary of the Renewables Readiness Assessment for the United Republic of Tanzania

Core Content

The Renewables Readiness Assessment (RRA) for the United Republic of Tanzania (Tanzania) is a comprehensive evaluation of the country's renewable energy potential, challenges and opportunities. Conducted by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the RRA aims to support Tanzania's transition to a sustainable energy future by identifying actions to overcome barriers to renewable energy deployment.

Tanzania is located in eastern Africa, with a population of 50.76 million, of which only 18% have access to electricity. The country's economy is shifting from an agricultural base to a more diversified model, increasing energy demand and highlighting the need for more reliable and sustainable energy sources.

Key Renewable Energy Resources

Tanzania possesses significant renewable energy resources, including:

• Hydropower: The primary source of electricity generation.
• Geothermal: Identified in the northern region, with potential for large-scale development.
• Solar: High solar irradiation across much of the country, with potential for both photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) projects.
• Wind: Strong wind resources in certain zones, particularly in the north and central regions.
• Biomass: A major component of the total primary energy supply (TPES), which has almost doubled in the last decade.

IRENA and LBNL estimated that wind power could displace a large portion of oil-based generation at one-third of the cost, due to the high correlation of wind resources with system demand. The least-cost energy system analysis for Tanzania suggests that utility-scale solar PV and wind could reach 3.7 GW and 1.9 GW respectively by 2030, alongside 694 MW of gas-fuelled power plant investment.

Current Energy Context

• Electricity supply is heavily dependent on hydropower, with droughts causing rolling blackouts.
• Transmission and distribution losses are significant, with 25% of power lost due to inadequate grid infrastructure.
• Oil products account for ~20% of electricity generation, mainly for off-grid and emergency on-grid applications.
• Renewables currently account for only 4.85% of non-hydropower electricity generation, despite the country's strong potential.

Challenges in Renewable Energy Deployment

Policy and Regulatory

• The draft Electricity Systems Operations Act 2016 gives priority to renewables but lacks guidelines for power forecasts.
• Feed-in tariffs and small power purchase agreements (SPPAs) exist, but renewables are unattractive to private investors due to TANESCO's weak financial position and the government's inability to guarantee payments.
• IRENA recommends revising the electricity master plan and developing a roadmap for the least-cost power system.

Financial

• High borrowing costs and limited access to investment loans hinder private sector participation.
• Domestic banks lack the capacity to assess and structure renewable projects.
• Low purchasing power in rural areas and high upfront costs of renewable technologies are major constraints.

Human Capacity

• Limited training and education in renewable energy, with only the University of Dar es Salaam offering a Master of Science in Renewable Energy.
• Vocational training and on-the-job training are needed to meet the labor demand in the renewable sector.
• Training needs include:
  • Construction and installation: ~20,000 jobs
  • Fuel production: ~1,100 jobs
  • Manufacturing: ~2,900 jobs
  • Decommissioning: ~4,000 jobs
  • Operation and maintenance: ~7,900 jobs

Infrastructure and Environment

• Long project development lead times, high land acquisition costs, and cumbersome environmental impact assessment procedures are obstacles.
• Weak financial instruments and lack of technical standards for renewable equipment pose risks to project quality and developer confidence.

Key Recommendations

• Revise national energy plans to incorporate resource potential and technology cost analysis.
• Update Electricity System Operation Rules 2016 to include provisions for better integration of renewables.
• Adopt transmission and wheeling charges that support variable renewables.
• Promote equity financing through non-banking financial institutions, especially the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange.
• Enhance collaboration between private sector and financial institutions.
• Establish a risk mitigation mechanism at the regional level (e.g., via COMESA).
• Expand and intensify training at higher and vocational education levels.
• Implement local-content requirements to ensure job security and local participation.
• Create a national renewable energy research centre to:
  • Collect and store renewable statistics and resource data.
  • Provide easier access to information and resolve data inconsistencies.
  • Conduct data audits and develop quality control and standard-setting methodologies.

Conclusion

The RRA highlights Tanzania's abundant renewable energy potential and the opportunities to leverage it for economic growth, energy security and sustainable development. However, barriers in policy, finance, human capacity and infrastructure must be addressed to fully realise this potential. The report serves as a guideline for Tanzania to develop a more resilient and sustainable energy system, with a focus on private sector engagement, policy reform, and capacity building.

References

• IRENA and LBNL (2015): Wind power potential in Tanzania.
• AfDB (2015): Impact of climate change on hydroelectric capacity.
• World Bank: Economic and demographic data on Tanzania.
• Tanzania Ministry of Energy and Minerals: Population and energy demand forecasts.