2025-06-17-花旗集团-维斯塔斯（VWS）_维斯塔斯（VWS.CO）_参议院关于清洁能源税收抵免的文本对风能有渐进式积极影响_10页_364kb

Citigroup Research on Vestas (VWS.CO)

Key Recommendations & Analysis

Short-Term View: Incremental positive for wind OEMs due to modified Senate clean energy credit bill.

• Senate Finance Committee text: Less onerous than House version, preserves key features that incentivize construction.
• Hydrogen: 45V construction start remains challenging (Jan 1, 2026 deadline).
• Market Clarity: Expect policy clarity and potential installation up-cycle through 2028.

Valuation:

• Target Price (TP): DKK 190.0 (69.6% upside).
• Approach: Blend of EV/EBITA (80%) & DCF (20%).
• Key Assumptions:
  • EV/EBITA: 14.0x Onshore, 18x Service, 1.5x EV/Sales Offshore (2026e).
  • WACC 9%, terminal growth 2%.

Key Drivers:

1. 45Y Wind Credits:
   • Construction start favorable window to capture incentives (avoid FEOC risk).
   • Existing IRS safe-harbor: 5% payment triggers construction.
   • Incentive for H2 2025 orders to lock in credits.
2. Credit Flexibility:
   • No 60-day build start delay; full credits available throughout 2025-2027.
   • Flexible 2025 completion requirement vs. prior 2028 deadline.
   • Restored transferability.

Investment Risks

1. Service margins: Potential structural decline from backlog scrutiny.
2. Permitting delays: Geographical bottlenecks delaying project deployment.
3. Geopolitical shifts: Policy/target changes may negatively impact sector dynamics.

Catalysts

• Policy clarity and implementation through 2025.
• Order surge in H2 2025 to capture credits.

Note: This summarizes the core insights from the original analysis, focusing on investment implications and key market assumptions.