2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Morocco_Ex_33页_1mb

IMF Ex-Post Evaluation of Morocco's 2014 Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) Arrangement

Core Content

The IMF conducted an ex-post evaluation (EPE) of the 2014-16 Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) arrangement with Morocco, which was approved in July 2014. The evaluation was carried out by the IMF staff and concluded by the Executive Board in August 2017. The arrangement aimed to provide insurance against potential balance of payments needs and support macroeconomic stability and job-rich growth through fiscal and structural reforms.

The PLL facility is designed for countries with sound policies and is intended to serve as a backstop in case of external shocks. Morocco's second PLL arrangement followed its first, which was approved in August 2012, and the 2014-16 arrangement sought to build on the progress made during the earlier period.

The access under the 2014-16 arrangement was set at 550 percent of quota (approximately SDR 3.24 billion), lower than the 700 percent of quota (about SDR 4.1 billion) under the previous arrangement. This reduction reflected the authorities' confidence in the economy's improved resilience and a moderation in external risks.

Main Objectives and Outcomes

Key Objectives of the 2014-16 PLL Arrangement:

• Strengthen macroeconomic stability by reducing fiscal and current account deficits.
• Promote stronger and more job-rich growth.
• Improve external competitiveness through structural reforms and fiscal adjustments.

Key Outcomes:

• Fiscal vulnerabilities were reduced, with the fiscal deficit decreasing from 4.9% of GDP in 2014 to 3.5% in 2016, aligning with the program's target.
• Subsidy reform was a major success, with a reduction in subsidy spending of 2.3 percentage points of GDP between 2014 and 2016.
• Public payroll was reduced from 12.7% of GDP in 2014 to 11.9% in 2016.
• External balances improved, supported by falling oil prices and a shift in exports towards higher-value-added products.
• The Organic Budget Law (OBL) was adopted in 2015, introducing multi-year and program budgeting, a fiscal "golden rule," performance management, and greater transparency.

Performance Evaluation

A. Fiscal Strategy

• The fiscal strategy aimed to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60% by 2019 through gradual consolidation.
• While fiscal consolidation was achieved, growth was lower than expected, partly due to over-optimistic assumptions about the impact of structural reforms and volatility in agricultural output.
• Unemployment declined, but youth unemployment remained a significant challenge.
• The tax-to-GDP ratio decreased from 22.7% in 2014 to 21.7% in 2016, reducing fiscal space for investment and social spending.

B. Organic Budget Law (OBL)

• The OBL introduced important structural improvements to the budget framework.
• It addressed weaknesses that led to fiscal slippages in 2012 by setting ceilings on the wage bill and limiting carry-over of investment appropriations.
• Most OBL provisions came into force in January 2016, enhancing fiscal discipline and transparency.

C. Growth and Employment

• Growth was lower than projected, highlighting the need for more realistic growth assumptions.
• While unemployment decreased, further reforms are necessary to ensure higher and more inclusive growth.
• Labor market reforms and fiscal space for investment were emphasized as critical for future growth.

D. External Competitiveness

• The external balance improved, supported by falling oil prices and increased reserves.
• The economy experienced a compositional shift in exports towards higher-value-added products.
• The exchange rate and monetary policy were noted as areas requiring further attention for long-term competitiveness.

Key Lessons and Recommendations

• Strong ownership of the program allowed for parsimonious conditionality, which was effective in delivering on commitments.
• More realistic growth projections and better motivation of potential growth increases are needed in future staff reports.
• Structural reforms, including pension reform and civil service reform, should be accelerated to ensure long-term sustainability.
• Fiscal space for public investment and pro-growth reforms should be maintained.
• Tax administration and policy design need further analysis to better understand the factors affecting fiscal performance.
• The phasing of access under the PLL arrangement was somewhat counterintuitive, as access increased in the second year despite improved vulnerabilities, reflecting a balance between balance of payments needs and safeguards.

Program Consistency with Fund Policies

• The program design and implementation were consistent with the IMF's Exceptional Access Policy and PLL qualification standards.
• The exit strategy from the 2014-16 PLL was properly signaled, and the financing gap in adverse scenarios was managed effectively.
• The use of conditionality was appropriate and aligned with the Fund's policy of parsimonious conditionality.

Conclusion

The 2014-16 PLL arrangement was successful in reducing fiscal and external vulnerabilities and improving the budget framework through the adoption of the OBL. However, growth and employment outcomes were below expectations, and further structural reforms are required to ensure long-term macroeconomic stability and inclusive growth. The evaluation also highlighted the importance of realistic economic projections and robust policy design in future programs.