2025-06-16-高盛-印度国家热电公司（NTPC）_NTPC有限公司（NTPC.BO）_中期电力短缺将加剧_股票定价未考虑当前管道之外的火电产能；买入_12页_903kb

Goldmann Sachs Research Summary: NTPC Ltd. (NTPC.BO)

• Key Recommendation: Goldman Sachs recommends buying NTPC Ltd. with a 12-month price target of Rs450, up from the previous Rs410. The stock is currently trading at Rs333.75, giving a 34.8% upside potential.

• Valuation: NTPC is valued at a 1-year forward price-to-book value (P/BV) multiple of 1.7x, which is below the 2.9-3.8x range of comparable private peers like Tata Power, JSW Energy, and Torrent Power, despite favorable positioning in the thermal and renewable energy businesses.

• Power Demand and Deficit:

  • Power demand is projected to grow at a 7.2% compound annual growth rate from FY25E to FY35E, an increase from the prior 5.6%.
  • The peak energy deficit could reach 9% in FY35E under adverse weather conditions, potentially requiring 140GW of coal capacity addition beyond FY23 levels.

• Capacity and Investment Opportunities:

  • NTPC is positioned as a key beneficiary of thermal power capex, with the potential to secure an additional 26GW of coal capacity for development and commissioning by FY35E.
  • This capacity is part of a broader need for 140GW of coal power additions; NTPC's expertise, large balance sheet, and long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with state governments bolster its competitive advantage.
  • Renewable energy (RE) capacity pipeline stands at 34GW, with firm visibility for 27GW, aiming for 60GW by FY32.

• Financials and Growth:

  • Revenue, EBITDA, and PAT projections show a consistent growth trajectory under the base case, with a 7.5% EBITDA CAGR forecast for FY25-28E.
  • Regulated equity is expected to grow at approximately 5-6% CAGR, driven by strong operational capabilities and state government support.

• Risks:

  • Downside risks include delays in coal plant execution, aggressive RE bidding, fluctuations in debt costs, and adverse regulations.
  • Growth in renewable energy may face execution bottlenecks and technical constraints, potentially capping RE capacity addition.

• Investment Thesis: The risk-reward profile is attractive due to NTPC's dominant role in thermal power, undervalued stock compared to peers, and long-term growth opportunities, though short-term power shortages may persist without signed long-term PPAs from private entities.