JPM-从EVE结果中得出的见解（英）_15页_11mb

J.P. Morgan Asia Pacific Equity Research
22 August 2025

Correction: This report contains updated data due to modelling errors.

Summary:

• EVE Energy 1H25 Results: EVE reported an 18% core earnings growth (excluding Rmb579mn stock incentive and bad debt). Despite lower Average Selling Price (ASP) and unit Net Profit (NP), strong volume growth (nearly 60%) drove this performance in their EV & ESS battery business. The US ESS market shows pricing recovery despite high tariffs (up to 58.4%) following the IRA policy updates, with customers continuing orders. However, concerns include the classification risk under the IRA's PFE rules due to retaining a JV board seat. Management maintains a positive outlook for 3Q25 and 2026, citing strong capacity utilization and expected price improvements, especially with high-capacity UTR adoption, even despite concerns about slower Chinese EV sales.
• Prices and Ratings:
  • CATL-A (Shanghai Stock Exchange): Overweight (OW) rating, price Rmb279.00/share.
  • EVE Energy (Shanghai Stock Exchange): Neutral (N) rating, price Rmb48.07/share.
  • CATL-H (Hong Kong Stock Exchange): Neutral (N) rating, price HK$406.00/share.
  • Gotion High-Tech (Shanghai Stock Exchange): Underweight (UW) rating, price Rmb31.24/share.
  • CALB (Hong Kong Stock Exchange): Overweight (OW) rating previously, last disclosed rating was Neutral (N) at Rmb17.68/share.
• Key Readings from EVE Call:
  1. Minimal Impact of Lithium Price Hikes: Management attributes resilience to cost-pass-through contracts, long-term agreements, and use of futures.
  2. Improving Battery Prices: Overseas sales/mix boosted ASPs in 2Q25. Future improvements expected due to government policies and lithium costs, though not yet seen with core customers. Supply/demand dynamics suggest price increases from large customers by 3Q25.
  3. US ESS Market: Despite tariffs, demand persists. Did not halt US capacity (JV with truck/Cummins/PACCAR) and plans to shift production capacity from CV to ESS, potentially increasing output.
  4. Capex Hike: EVE increased 1H25 capex by 104% to Rmb10.3bn, significantly higher than 2023-24 levels (maple map). This aligns with industry upcyclic spending by tier-1/tier-2 players, favorable for equipment suppliers. Cycle appears longer than expected.
  5. Positive 3Q25 Outlook: Production expected to grow 15-20% year-on-quarter.

Analyst Certifications (Rebecca Wen):

• All views in this report reflect personal views.
• No part of compensation related to specific recommendations/views in this report.

Analyst Certification - Important Disclosure: Lists potential conflicts of interest for J.P. Morgan and the analyst (including specific roles for the company and analyst regarding the discussed companies: CATL A, CATL H, EVE Energy, Gotion, CALB).

JP Morgan Equity Research Ratings:

• Overweight (OW): CATL A
• Neutral (N): CATL H, EVE Energy, CALB (last disclosed)
• Underweight (UW): Gotion High-Tech

Disclaimer:

• Conflicts of Interest: J.P. Morgan may have business dealings with the companies discussed, potentially impacting objectivity.
• Regulatory Status: J.P. Morgan has specific market maker/liquidity provider/client relationships in various jurisdictions.
• Legal Disclosures: Includes extensive disclosures regarding US Analysts, sponsored research, environmental, social, and governance data, and data licensing agreements (MSCI, Sustainalytics).
• Copyright Notice: Material or any portion may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without written consent.

Tables Summary (Key Comparisons):

Table 1: EVE P&L summary (1H25 vs prior year, year-over-year).

• EVE Growth: Net sales growth 37.3% YoY in H1 2025, 20% QoQ in Q2 2025.
• EVE Margins: Gross margin fell to 17.5% in Q2 2025 from 19.0% in Q1 2025, but operating margin dipped significantly to 3.9% YoY. Net profit margin also fell sharply in Q2 2025.
• Management: Guides to strong capacity utilization and positive outlook driven by new capacity release and overseas sales, despite potential domestic slowdown concerns.

Table 2: Battery Makers' EV/ESS Battery Shipments.

• Displays historical shipments (GWh) for key players (CATL, EVE, Gotion, etc.) including breakdowns for EV batteries and ESS batteries. EVE showed significant shipment growth (69%) for EV/ESS batteries in 1H25.

Table 3: Battery Makers' Power Battery ASP Comparison.

• Shows the evolution of Average Selling Prices for EV and ESS batteries. EVE's prices for EV+ESS batteries saw a small YoY increase (-0.04 Rmb/kWh in 2024, slightly stable relative to prior years). CATL saw a steeper decline (-15%).سى

Brief reference to other tables: Results focus primarily on EVE performance and comparisons; other tables (like unit profitability, NP margin after subsidies/ex-grants) are included but complex multi-period comparisons were not detailed in the summary.
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