2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Guinea_81页_997kb

Summary of Guinea-Bissau: Third Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility

Core Content

This document outlines the third review under the three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and Financing Assurances Review for Guinea-Bissau, conducted by the IMF and World Bank. It includes the staff report, joint debt sustainability analysis, informational annex, press release, and a statement by the Executive Director. The review was completed in November 2011, following discussions that ended on September 21, 2011.

Main Points

Economic Performance

• Economic conditions have improved due to high cashew prices and a robust harvest, which have helped stabilize the balance of payments.
• Real GDP growth is expected to reach 5.3% in 2011, higher than the initial projections.
• Inflation is expected to rise in 2011, reaching 5.5% year-on-year, but core inflation remains low.
• The country has moved away from debt distress following HIPC completion and is showing improved fiscal sustainability.

Fiscal Program

• The 2011 fiscal program was largely on track, with tax revenue increasing and non-regularized expenditures (DNTs) brought under control by October 2011.
• The 2012 budget aims to maintain fiscal prudence, with revenue expected to increase by 2 percentage points of GDP.
• For the first time, fiscal revenues will be sufficient to cover current expenditures, allowing budget support to be redirected toward investment projects.

Policy Recommendations

• The staff recommends completing the third review, which would enable the disbursement of SDR 2.414 million (17% of quota).
• Continued fiscal reforms, structural improvements, and debt management are critical for long-term economic stability and growth.

Key Information

Main Economic Indicators

• GDP growth: 5.3% in 2011, expected to remain favorable in 2012.
• Inflation: 5.5% in 2011, projected to decline to below the WAEMU target range in 2012.
• Current account: Improved due to higher export prices, but may widen slightly in 2012.

Fiscal Targets

• Fiscal revenue: Expected to reach 12.7% of GDP in 2012.
• Domestic primary deficit: Projected at 1.6% of GDP in 2012.
• Budget support: Expected to be slightly below program levels due to reduced EU assistance.

Revenue Raising Measures

• The 2012 budget includes measures to increase revenue, such as raising reference prices for key imports, eliminating tax exemptions, and strengthening customs and tax administration.
• A new cashew export surcharge of about CFAF 8 billion (1.7% of GDP) is being introduced to support agricultural industrialization, managed by a public-private partnership.

Structural Reforms

• Public Financial Management (PFM): Progress has been made in expenditure control and revenue mobilization. The unified payroll system is being extended to all ministries.
• Security Sector Reform (SSR): A roadmap for restructuring the defense and security sectors is in place, with plans to reduce the military to about 3,500 personnel by 2015. ECOWAS is expected to contribute US$65 million, including US$45 million for a pension fund.
• Business Climate: Efforts are underway to improve the business environment, reduce infrastructure bottlenecks, and promote private sector development.

Policy Discussion Highlights

A. Maintaining Fiscal Prudence

• The 2011 fiscal program is fully financed.
• The 2012 budget emphasizes resource efficiency, revenue mobilization, and reducing domestic arrears.
• The government is committed to monitoring the new cashew export surcharge and revisiting its policy based on implementation experience.

B. Structural Reforms and Poverty Reduction Strategy

• The government has adopted a second five-year Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS), focusing on strengthening the rule of law, improving public administration, and ensuring macroeconomic stability.
• The PRS aims to foster a competitive economy and reduce dependency on a single export (cashews).

C. Debt Policies and Financing Assurances

• The country has benefited from debt relief under the HIPC program.
• Continued debt sustainability is essential, with a focus on improving debt management and ensuring adequate financing assurances.

Risks and Challenges

• External risks include lower-than-expected cashew prices and weak growth in advanced economies.
• Domestic risks include political pressures for pre-election policy shifts and the need to maintain fiscal discipline amid rising spending demands.
• Implementation of the cashew export surcharge and the new fund will be critical to achieving economic diversification and industrialization goals.

Conclusion

Guinea-Bissau is on a positive trajectory with improved economic performance and fiscal sustainability. The successful implementation of the ECF-supported program and continued reform efforts are key to maintaining growth and reducing poverty. The government's commitment to fiscal discipline, structural reforms, and public administration modernization will be vital in the coming years to ensure long-term economic stability and development.