期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Summer1989_52页_888kb

Summary of NBER Program Report: Economic Fluctuations

Core Content

The NBER's Program in Economic Fluctuations, as detailed in the Program Report from Summer 1989, has seen significant growth since the last report, increasing from 38 to 69 participants and producing over 200 Working Papers. The report highlights various research areas and findings related to macroeconomic performance, financial factors, economic fluctuations, and policy implications.

Main Research Topics and Key Findings

1. Macroeconomic Performance and Fluctuations

• Ben S. Bernanke and Alan S. Blinder have studied the interaction between the real and financial sectors of the U.S. macroeconomy.
• Bernanke and Mark Gertler developed theoretical models showing how borrower net worth affects economic stability and cyclical behavior.
• Bernanke and John Y. Campbell explored the increasing leverage of U.S. corporations.
• Olivier J. Blanchard and Danny Quah analyzed the long-lasting effects of supply and demand shocks and the role of permanent and transitory disturbances in explaining economic fluctuations.
• Christina D. Romer focused on the causes of business cycles, particularly the Great Crash of 1929 and its role in initiating the Great Depression.
• Mark W. Watson studied long-run relationships in aggregate economic time-series, detrending methods, and cointegration. He also collaborated on developing new leading and coincident economic indicators.
• David Romer examined whether nominal disturbances have real effects, using nonstatistical information to isolate monetary disturbances.
• John H. Cochrane found that GNP tends to return to a long-run growth path after disturbances, though the rate is slow. He also studied consumption behavior and the implications of persistent fluctuations.
• Steven N. Durlauf addressed econometric issues raised by studies showing macroeconomic variables have random movements at low frequencies, and he collaborated on detecting specification errors in models with expectations.
• Thomas J. Sargent explored learning in dynamic economic environments, focusing on how adaptive methods converge to rational expectations. He also worked on monetary theory in models with missing markets.
• Victor Zarnowitz conducted a comparative study of U.S. macroeconomic fluctuations, finding that instability did not diminish post-WWII but that economic performance declined in the second half of the postwar period.
• Jeffrey A. Miron, Stephen P. Zeldes, and Robert B. Barsky examined seasonal fluctuations in economic activity, showing that they account for over 85% of real GNP growth fluctuations and are similar to business cycles.
• Alan C. Stockman studied the effects of real disturbances on exchange rates, current account, and other macroeconomic variables.
• Alan S. Blinder focused on consumer durables and the role of credit in monetary policy transmission.

2. Macroeconomics and Finance

• Kenneth J. Singleton studied volatility in long-term government bond yields in Japan and developed models for asset price determination.
• Frederic S. Mishkin analyzed real interest rate behavior and the term structure of interest rates as indicators of future inflation.
• Sanford J. Grossman developed asset pricing models in the presence of durable goods and transactions costs, showing that small transaction costs can significantly affect the covariability of consumption and asset prices.
• Lars Peter Hansen investigated the quantitative implications of intertemporal general equilibrium models and their relationship to asset prices and productivity.
• Kenneth D. West studied stock price volatility and found that it is difficult to reconcile with standard present value models, though nonstandard models based on investor fads lack formal evidence.

3. Measurement and Data

• Robert J. Gordon completed a monograph on durable goods prices and found that the inflation rate for producers' equipment was overstated by 3% per year during 1947–83.
• Gordon and Nathan S. Balke reworked Simon Kuznets’s estimates of real GNP and the GNP deflator, finding that the cyclical behavior of real GNP differs in individual episodes but retains similar overall volatility.
• Gordon also studied wage and price behavior across countries and historical periods, casting doubt on the standard view that prices are marked up over wages.

4. Macroeconomics and Industrial Organization

• R. Glenn Hubbard, Ian Domowitz, and Bruce C. Petersen analyzed cyclical movements in markups in U.S. manufacturing, finding that concentrated industries have higher markups and that markups fluctuate over the business cycle.
• Julio J. Rotemberg studied price flexibility, particularly the rigidity of price-setting by monopolists, and the effect of inflexible prices and labor hoarding on productivity measurement.
• Mark Bils examined how labor costs vary cyclically, finding that they fluctuate more than most prices and that firms absorb much of the variation in markups.

5. Consumers' Behavior

• Marjorie Flavin found that consumption is more sensitive to current income than the permanent-income hypothesis suggests, even for households not liquidity-constrained.
• Albert Ando used detailed micro-datasets to study household saving responses to various factors, including age, productivity, real wages, and demographic conditions.
• John Y. Campbell and Nathan G. Mankiw reexamined the permanent-income hypothesis and found that current income plays a strong role in determining aggregate consumption.
• Nathan G. Mankiw and Miles S. Kimball studied departures from Ricardian equivalence due to income taxes and precautionary saving.
• Nathan G. Mankiw and David N. Weil found that fluctuations in adult population growth can explain most large fluctuations in the real price of housing.

6. Macroeconomic Policy

• Stanley Fischer compared monetary policies and economic performance in the U.S., Japan, and Europe, and studied whether nations should "learn to live with" inflation.
• Robert J. Barro examined the relationship between government spending, budget deficits, and national saving and growth.
• Rudiger Dornbusch concluded that fully credible stabilization programs do not exist and explored the factors that influence program credibility.
• Herschel I. Grossman developed models of proprietary public finance and analyzed reputational equilibriums in political and economic contexts.

Key Researchers and Their Contributions

• Ben S. Bernanke – Studied financial and real sector interactions, credit, and monetary policy transmission.
• Olivier J. Blanchard – Analyzed supply and demand shocks, hysteresis, and the European unemployment problem.
• Christina D. Romer – Focused on the causes of business cycles, especially the Great Depression.
• Mark W. Watson – Worked on long-run relationships, cointegration, and leading economic indicators.
• David Romer – Investigated the real effects of nominal disturbances.
• John H. Cochrane – Studied aggregate output and consumption behavior.
• Steven N. Durlauf – Addressed econometric issues and specification errors in macroeconomic models.
• Thomas J. Sargent – Explored learning in dynamic environments and monetary theory.
• Victor Zarnowitz – Analyzed macroeconomic fluctuations and their persistence.
• Jeffrey A. Miron, Stephen P. Zeldes, and Robert B. Barsky – Examined seasonal economic fluctuations and their similarities to business cycles.
• Alan C. Stockman – Studied real disturbances and their effects on exchange rates and the current account.
• Andrew B. Abel – Analyzed the role of intergenerational transfers in fiscal policy.
• Robert J. Gordon – Worked on durable goods prices, productivity measurement, and wage-price behavior.
• Rudiger Dornbusch – Focused on macroeconomic program credibility and real exchange rates.
• Herschel I. Grossman – Developed models of economic policy and reputational equilibriums.
• Jerry R. Green – Studied capital gains taxation, fixed interest rate mortgages, and social insurance.

Additional Information

• The NBER is a private, nonprofit research organization founded in 1920.
• The report includes a list of NBER directors, both at large and by university and other organization appointments.
• Contributions to the NBER are tax-deductible, and the Reporter is not copyrighted and can be freely reproduced with proper attribution.
• The preparation of the NBER Reporter is supervised by Donna Zerwitz.