CBRE-2018曼谷房地产市场展望（英文版）-2018-27页-4mb

报告摘要

2018 Bangkok Real Estate Market Outlook Summary

Core Content Overview

The 2018 Bangkok real estate market outlook highlights a combination of economic growth, foreign investment, and sector-specific changes across residential, office, retail, and industrial/logistics sectors. The market is characterized by strong demand for prime sites, rising prices, and a shift in tenant and consumer behavior due to technological and economic trends.

Main Points

Economic Outlook

Economic Growth: Thailand's GDP growth is expected to reach near 4% in 2018, driven by exports and tourism.
Tourism: 35.3 million international and domestic tourist arrivals in 2017, contributing 20% of GDP. Tourism is expected to continue driving demand in the hospitality and retail sectors.
Exports: Exports grew by 9.9% in 2017, the highest in six years, and are projected to increase by 6-6.5% in 2018.
Consumer Confidence: Improved consumer confidence is expected to positively impact property demand.

Residential Sector

Foreign Capital Influx: Local developers are increasingly forming joint ventures with foreign investors, especially from Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and China.
Luxury Market: The luxury downtown condominium market remains strong, with Thai buyers accounting for over 75% of transactions. Prices are expected to continue rising, though not all developers will succeed.
Mid-Market Recovery: Signs of recovery in midtown and suburban markets, with developers launching 64,000 units in 2017. Banks have eased mortgage lending criteria, which should support demand.
Diversification: Developers are expanding into income-producing office, hotel, and retail properties to reduce risk and increase revenue streams.

Office Sector

Demand Stability: Steady demand for office space at around 200,000 sq.m. per year, with limited new supply leading to low vacancy rates and rising rents.
Rental Trends: Grade A rents in CBD increased to THB 994 per sq.m. per month in 2017, with Gaysorn Tower becoming the most expensive office building in Bangkok.
Workplace Strategy: Tenants are adopting the 360 workplace strategy to reduce costs by using less space and more flexible co-working solutions.
Co-Working Expansion: Four international co-working operators are set to open their first centers in Bangkok, with local operators also expanding.

Retail Sector

E-Commerce Impact: The retail sector faces challenges from e-commerce growth, which accounts for less than 1% of total retail sales in Thailand. Retailers are adapting by creating unique in-store experiences and integrating online channels.
Supply and Demand: Retail supply increased by about 300,000 sq.m. in 2018, with major projects like ICONSIAM and IKEA at CentralPlaza WestGate set for completion.
Occupancy: Positive occupancy rates due to economic recovery and mall renovations, but competition is intensifying.

Industrial & Logistics Sector

E-Commerce Growth: Increased e-commerce activity is driving demand for modern logistics properties.
FDI Trends: FDI in manufacturing rose by 6.8% in 2017, with Japan and Taiwan being major contributors. The car industry is a key driver for future industrial demand.
Land Prices: Serviced industrial land plot sales increased by 35.2% in 2017, but ready-built factory vacancies remained high at 30%.

Key Information

Prime Sites: High demand for prime sites, especially near mass transit stations, continues to push land prices to record levels.
Foreign Investment: Joint ventures with foreign investors are becoming more common, particularly in condominium and income-producing properties.
Market Trends:
- Residential developers are diversifying into other property classes.
- Office tenants are shifting to co-working and flexible workspace solutions.
- Retail landlords are focusing on unique experiences and omni-channel strategies.
Challenges:
- High land prices may make some developments unfeasible.
- Affordability issues in the mass residential market.
- Risk of oversupply if many planned developments proceed simultaneously.
Political and Tax Uncertainty: Political uncertainty around elections and unclear tax policies pose risks to the market.
Interest Rates: Possible increases in interest rates could affect borrowing and investment.

Risks & Opportunities

Opportunities

Economic growth and improved consumer confidence.
Tourism and export growth.
Infrastructure expansion.
Easier mortgage lending criteria.
Increased foreign investment in joint ventures.
Adoption of new technologies in property management.
Development opportunities in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC).

Risks

Overpriced land leading to unfeasible projects.
Lack of affordability in mass residential markets.
Potential oversupply in multiple sectors.
Political uncertainty.
Uncertainty in tax policy.
Possible interest rate increases.

Contact Information

For more information about this report:

CBRE Thailand Research Team:
- James Pitchon – Executive Director
- Tornbonkot Patcharaprakiti – Senior Analyst
- Pichamon Chomanan – Analyst
- Pobporn Svetasobhana – Analyst
- Thatchanan Siddhijai – Manager
- Malin Phlernjai – Analyst
- Korn Supappoj – Analyst
- Khanachai Kitisorayut – Analyst
- Rathawat Kuvijitruwan – Manager
- Pakapon Utaobin – Analyst
- Pattaratorn Pornsirikul – Analyst