20180619-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_21页_939kb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary - 19 June 2018
Core Content Overview
This document provides a summary of stock market updates and analysis for various companies and indices across China, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. It includes company-specific updates, financial data, stock performance, and analyst recommendations.
Main Points
China
-
Anta Sports (2020 HK):
- The company has rebutted GMT Research's report, which claimed Anta had above-market-leader profitability and misinterpreted Fila China's royalty contributions.
- Anta maintains a robust retail sales growth in China and owns the Fila brand's IP through a joint venture.
- Analysts maintain a BUY rating with a target price of HK$50.00.
- Financials show consistent growth in net profit and EBITDA, with a projected 25.4% upside.
-
Beijing Capital International Airport (694 HK):
- The cessation of airport fee refunds in November 2018 will reduce 2019 revenue and net profit by 11% and 30% respectively.
- The stock has been downgraded to HOLD with a target price cut to HK$10.90.
- Financial performance is affected, and the stock price is expected to decline by 15-20%.
Key Information
Malaysia
-
Berjaya Sports Toto (BST MK):
- 4QFY18 results were largely in line with expectations, but impairments were recorded.
- Maintained BUY rating with a target price of RM2.78.
-
Cahya Mata Sarawak (CMS MK):
- Road maintenance concession extended for another year.
- Construction of MPAS plants to commence in July 2018.
- Maintained BUY rating with a target price of RM4.00.
Singapore
- Singapore Airlines (SIA SP):
- Earnings and target price were lowered due to concerns over cargo profitability.
- Maintained HOLD rating with a target price of S$11.90.
Thailand
- Sino-Thai Engineering & Construction (STEC TB):
- Strong sales and stable margins are expected to support core earnings growth.
- The stock is considered undervalued and maintained BUY rating with a target price of Bt26.50.
Key Indices Performance
| Index | Previous Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 24987.5 | (0.4) | (1.3) | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| S&P 500 | 2773.8 | (0.2) | (0.3) | 2.2 | 3.7 |
| FTSE 100 | 7631.3 | (0.0) | (1.4) | (1.9) | (0.7) |
| AS30 | 6212.8 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| CSI 300 | 3753.4 | (0.5) | (0.7) | (3.8) | (6.9) |
| FSSTI | 3324.0 | (1.0) | (3.3) | (5.8) | (2.3) |
| HSCEI | 11870.2 | (0.7) | (2.4) | (3.9) | 1.4 |
| HSI | 30309.5 | (0.4) | (2.1) | (2.4) | 1.3 |
| JCI | 5993.6 | (1.9) | 0.2 | 0.6 | (5.7) |
| KLCI | 1743.4 | (1.0) | (2.0) | (6.0) | (3.0) |
| KOSPI | 2376.2 | (1.2) | (3.1) | (3.4) | (3.7) |
| Nikkei 225 | 22680.3 | (0.8) | (0.5) | (1.1) | (0.4) |
| SET | 1679.7 | (1.5) | (2.5) | (4.2) | (4.2) |
| TWSE | 11087.5 | 0.7 | (0.6) | 2.4 | 4.2 |
| BDI | 1445 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 13.5 | 5.8 |
| CPO (RM/ml) | 2319 | 0.1 | (2.3) | (3.9) | (3.0) |
| Brent Crude | 75 | 2.6 | (1.5) | (4.0) | 12.7 |
Top Picks
BUY
- Baoshan Iron & Steel (600019 CH): Target price 11.25, Potential upside 25.4%
- Gudang Garam (GGRM LJ): Target price 83,000.00, Potential upside 18.1%
- PP Persero (PTPP IJ): Target price 3,700.00, Potential upside 40.2%
- V.S. Industry (VSI MK): Target price 2.90, Potential upside 72.6%
- OCBC (OCBC SP): Target price 16.02, Potential upside 33.7%
- SingTel (ST SP): Target price 4.22, Potential upside 32.3%
- Siam Cement (SCC TB): Target price 610.00, Potential upside 44.5%
SELL
- Great Wall Motor (2333 HK): Target price 6.50, Potential downside (7.1)%
- Hartalega (HART MK): Target price 4.02, Potential downside (33.0)%
Key Assumptions
| Region/Country | 2017 | 2018F | 2019F |
|---|---|---|---|
| US GDP (% yoy) | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| Euro Zone GDP | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| Japan GDP | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Singapore GDP | 3.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| Malaysia GDP | 5.9 | 5.0 | 5.3 |
| Thailand GDP | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| Indonesia GDP | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.4 |
| Hong Kong GDP | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.8 |
| China GDP | 6.9 | 6.4 | 6.2 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2,783 | 2,400 | 2,500 |
| Brent Crude | 55.00 | 67.00 | 66.50 |
Corporate Events
| Event | Venue | Begin | Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Analyst Presentation on SG/HK Property & REITs | Bangkok | 18 Jun | 19 Jun |
| Analyst Presentation on Indonesia Outlook & Strategy | Bangkok | 25 Jun | 26 Jun |
| Analyst Presentation on Singapore and China Banks | Kuala Lumpur | 27 Jun | 28 Jun |
| Roadshow with Jacobson Pharma Corp (2633 HK) | Hong Kong | 28 Jun | 28 Jun |
| Caltering Management (0520.HK) | Montreal | 29 Jun | 29 Jun |
| Luncheon with Luk Fook Holdings International (590 HK) | Hong Kong | 5 Jul | 5 Jul |
| Industry 4.0 Conference | Kuala Lumpur | 26 Jul | 26 Jul |
Stock Impact & Valuation
Anta Sports (2020 HK)
- Share Price: HK$43.00
- Target Price: HK$50.00
- Upside: +16.3%
- Valuation Metrics:
- PE: 23.2x (2018F)
- P/B: 6.1x
- EV/EBITDA: 17.3x
- Net margin: 17.7% (2018F)
- ROE: 27.2% (2018F)
- Dividend Yield: 2.9% (2018F)
- Net Debt/Equity: (48.6)% (2018F)
Beijing Capital International Airport (694 HK)
- Share Price: HK$11.76
- Target Price: HK$10.90
- Upside: -7.3%
- Valuation Metrics:
- PE: 14.1x (2018F)
- P/B: 1.8x
- EV/EBITDA: 8.0x
- Net margin: 26.7% (2018F)
- ROE: 12.7% (2018F)
- Dividend Yield: 2.8% (2018F)
- Net Debt/Equity: 15.8% (2018F)
Earnings & Risk
-
Anta Sports:
- Maintain 2018-20 net profit forecasts at Rmb3,887m, Rmb4,739m, and Rmb5,893m.
- Our core net profit forecasts are 4.9% / 5.5% / 8.5% above consensus for 2018-20.
-
Beijing Capital International Airport:
- Adjusted net profit estimates have been revised downward due to the cessation of airport fee refunds.
- Earnings for 2019 are expected to be Rmb1.3b lower, with a Rmb997m reduction in net profit.
Analysts
-
Robin Yuen:
- Contact: +852 2826 4837
- Email: robin.yuen@uobkayhian.com.hk
-
K Ajith:
- Contact: +65 6590 6627
- Email: ajith@uobkayhian.com
Summary
The report highlights the financial performance and strategic outlook of key companies in China, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. Anta Sports faces challenges from a misleading report but maintains a BUY rating due to strong fundamentals and growth potential. In contrast, Beijing Capital International Airport has been downgraded to HOLD due to policy changes affecting its revenue and net profit. Other companies in Malaysia and Singapore are maintained with BUY ratings, while some are flagged for potential downside. The key indices show mixed performance, with the KLCI and TWSE leading in growth. The report also includes key corporate events and valuation metrics for each company.
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