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Global Data Watch Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the global economic impact of the escalating US-China trade war, highlighting the risks of recession and the potential consequences for various regions and economies. The key focus is on how trade tensions, particularly the imposition of high tariffs, affect economic growth, trade flows, and policy responses across the globe.

Main Views

• Recession Risks: The document estimates that the probability of a global recession stands at 60%, with a US recession being the baseline expectation. The combination of 10% universal tariffs and 145% on China has significantly increased the risk of economic downturns.

• Trade War Impact: The trade war has led to a sharp decline in global economic sentiment and a reduction in the growth outlook for several regions. The impact is expected to be most severe on the US and China, with a potential disruption in the largest bilateral trade relationship.

• Economic Consequences: The document notes that high tariffs could lead to a tax increase and a deadweight loss in production. It also highlights that the US and China's trade war could lead to a significant reduction in trade flows, affecting global supply chains and causing inflationary pressures.

• Policy Responses: The analysis suggests that central banks and governments are likely to respond with monetary and fiscal stimulus measures. However, these measures may not be sufficient to counteract the adverse effects of the trade war.

Key Information

• US Economic Outlook:

  • The US is expected to experience a contraction of -0.9% in 2025, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain a dovish stance.
  • Upcoming data, such as retail sales and manufacturing output, are expected to show positive momentum, but the long-term outlook is negative due to trade tensions.
  • The US CPI report showed a decline in energy prices, which may help ease the tariff-related squeeze on purchasing power.

• China's Economic Outlook:

  • China's 2025 growth is expected to be dragged down by the 145% tariffs, with a projected slowdown of 0.7%.
  • China is likely to retaliate with 125% tariffs on the US, further escalating the trade conflict.
  • The Chinese government is expected to deploy additional fiscal stimulus, including a Y1tn package, to counteract the trade war's impact.

• Asia (Ex-China):

  • Asian economies, particularly those in the EM Asia region, are expected to experience a slowdown, with revised GDP forecasts showing a decrease.
  • The partial rollback of tariffs for non-China economies offers some relief, but the region remains at risk due to its reliance on exports to the US and China.
  • The document suggests that Asian exporters may front-load their production and use transshipment to mitigate the impact of higher tariffs.

• Japan:

  • Japan's growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 0.2%.
  • The document suggests that Japan may absorb the tariffs in its margins, which could weigh on activity and potentially wages.
  • The Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates in June, conditional on the global backdrop.

• Emerging Markets:

  • Emerging markets are facing significant challenges due to the trade war, with several economies, including Taiwan, Singapore, and Thailand, expected to experience recessions in 2025.
  • The document highlights the need for more policy support, particularly in the form of monetary easing, to mitigate the impact of the trade war.

• Latin America:

  • Latin American economies, such as Mexico, are already in recession, with the trade war being a major factor.
  • The document suggests that the region will continue to feel the fallout from reduced commodity demand and trade disruptions.

• Europe:

  • The Euro area is expected to experience a slowdown, with central banks hesitant to cut rates despite the economic impact.
  • The document notes that the trade war could lead to financial market stress, limiting the ability of central banks to respond effectively.

• Policy Outlook:

  • The document emphasizes the need for both monetary and fiscal policy support to counteract the negative effects of the trade war.
  • Central banks in emerging markets are expected to implement more easing measures, including rate cuts and currency interventions.

Conclusion

The trade war between the US and China poses significant risks to the global economy, with a high probability of recession. The imposition of high tariffs has led to a reduction in trade flows, increased costs, and economic uncertainty. The document suggests that while some economies may experience short-term relief through policy adjustments, the long-term impact of the trade war is likely to be severe, necessitating more substantial economic support measures.