2015年-德勤中国_德勤2015生命科学行业展望_20页_864kb

2015 Global Life Sciences Outlook Summary

Core Content

The 2015 Deloitte Global Life Sciences Outlook highlights the transformative era the sector is entering, driven by several key factors including aging populations, chronic diseases, emerging-market expansion, and technological advancements. These forces are expected to stimulate growth, but they are also accompanied by significant challenges such as cost containment, regulatory changes, and evolving payment models.

Main Trends and Considerations

1. Economic and Demographic Drivers

• Aging populations: Increasing life expectancy, particularly in developed countries, is leading to higher demand for treatments of age-related diseases such as Alzheimer's, diabetes, and arthritis.
• Rising chronic diseases: Conditions like cancer and heart disease are becoming leading causes of death, especially in emerging markets, increasing the need for innovative treatments.
• Emerging markets growth: Countries like China and India are driving global health care spending due to rising affluence and population growth.
• Health care spending: Global health care spending is projected to grow at an average of 5.2% from 2014 to 2018, but at a slower rate than the previous decade.

2. Sector Performance

• Pharmaceuticals: Expected to reach $1.61 trillion in total revenues by 2018, with oncology remaining the top therapeutic area.
• Biotechnology: Projected to grow at 9% annually to $444.9 billion by 2019, driven by investment and demand for innovative products.
• Medical Technology (MedTech): Anticipated to grow from $363.8 billion to $513.5 billion by 2020, with in vitro diagnostics and neurology devices showing strong growth potential.

3. Regulatory and Risk Environment

• Global regulatory complexity: Increased scrutiny and evolving standards are creating a more challenging landscape for compliance.
• Safety and transparency: Regulatory bodies are tightening rules around product safety, data collection, and disclosure, exemplified by the FDA's GUDID and EMA's IDMP initiatives.
• Risk-based inspections: Authorities are employing more targeted and coordinated inspections across global supply chains and operations.

4. Innovation and Growth Strategies

• M&A activity: A surge in mergers and acquisitions is observed, with large deals like the Medtronic-Covidien merger and Actavis' acquisition of Forest Laboratories.
• R&D focus: Companies are shifting towards high-potential therapeutic areas such as oncology and diabetes, with improved late-stage success rates and NME approvals.
• Collaborations and partnerships: Increased reliance on partnerships, especially with academic institutions and biotech firms, to reduce R&D risk and improve productivity.

5. Cost Containment and Value-Based Care

• Value-based payments: Many countries are moving from volume-based to value-based payment models, requiring companies to demonstrate the value of their products.
• Generic and biosimilar growth: Governments and payors are using generics and biosimilars to control costs, leading to increased competition for branded drugs.
• Pricing pressures: Both mature and emerging markets face pricing pressures, prompting companies to innovate and justify costs.

Key Information

• Global health care spending is projected to increase at an average of 5.2% from 2014 to 2018, with Asia and Australasia expected to see the highest growth (8.1%).
• Pharmaceutical spending in North America is expected to rise by 6.4% annually, while Western Europe's growth is minimal at 2.2%.
• Biotech growth is fueled by investment in emerging economies and the increasing unmet medical need for specialized treatments.
• MedTech growth is anticipated to be driven by emerging markets and new product introductions, with in vitro diagnostics and neurology devices showing the most promise.
• R&D productivity is declining but may be turning around with improved late-stage success rates and increased collaboration between large pharma companies and smaller biotechs.

Strategic Considerations for Stakeholders

• Long-term planning: Given the extended product development timelines, stakeholders must adopt a long-term strategic focus.
• Adaptation to regulatory changes: Companies need to invest in data management and compliance to meet evolving standards.
• Innovation and cost efficiency: Balancing innovation with cost control is critical as payors and governments demand more value for money.
• Global expansion: Companies should consider entering emerging markets to offset slowing growth in developed countries.
• M&A and partnerships: Leveraging mergers and acquisitions and strategic collaborations can help in scaling operations and accessing new technologies.

Conclusion

The life sciences sector is at a pivotal moment, where innovation, regulatory adaptation, and cost efficiency are central to its future. While the outlook is positive, companies must be agile in navigating the complex and evolving landscape to sustain growth and stakeholder value.