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CPG Short Interest Sector Snapshot (Jefferies Research - June 10, 2025)

This report provides an overview of short interest and related metrics (Days to Cover) for major US-based Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) sectors: Food, Beverages, Home & Personal Care (HPC), and Beauty. Data is presented for the period ending May 30, 2025.

Key Metrics Overview

• Short Interest: Average percentage of shares sold short relative to the float.
• Change: Comparison to the preceding 2-week period.
• Days to Cover: Average estimated time for short sellers to buy back shares.
• Sector Comparison: Average short interest levels across each sector.

Sector Analysis

Food Sector

• Avg. Short Interest: 5.1% (-0.1 pp from prior 2 weeks)
• Avg. Days to Cover: 4.5 (+0.1 vs prior 2 weeks)
• Top 2-Wk Increase: VITL (+1.7 pp), UTZ (+1.6 pp), FLO (+0.9 pp)
• Top 3-Mo Increase: BGS (+6.1 pp), VITL (+3.9 pp), FLO (+1.6 pp)
• Notable Companies: VITL, UTZ, FLO (high increase); SMPL, HAIN, HSY (high decrease); BYND, BGS, VITL, KHC (high short interest); KLG, ENR, EPC (high days to cover)

Beverages Sector

• Avg. Short Interest: 6.3% (+0.1 pp from prior 2 weeks)
• Avg. Days to Cover: 6.6 (+0.5 vs prior 2 weeks)
• Top 2-Wk Increase: SAM (+0.4 pp), BF.B (+0.4 pp), STZ (+0.3 pp)
• Top 3-Mo Increase: COCO (+1.3 pp), FIZZ (+1.2 pp), STZ (+1.2 pp)
• Notable Companies: COCO, FIZZ, ELV (high short interest); KDP, PEP, KO (low short interest); STZ, BF.B, SAM (high 2-wk increase); KDP, MNST, COCO (high 3-mo increase); COCO, FIZZ, STZ (high short interest); COCO, FIZZ, KDP (high 3-mo increase); FIZZ, BF.B, COCO (high 2-wk increase)

HPC Sector

• Avg. Short Interest: 3.2% (+0.1 pp from prior 2 weeks)
• Avg. Days to Cover: 3.1 (+0.4 vs prior 2 weeks)
• Top 2-Wk Increase: ENR (+0.8 pp), NWL (+0.5 pp), CHD (+0.2 pp)
• Top 3-Mo Increase: EPC (+1.4 pp), NWL (+0.7 pp), ENR (+0.3 pp)
• Notable Companies: ENR, NWL, CHD (high increase); EPC, PG, CL (high decrease); EPC, COTY, ELV (high short interest); COTY, BYND, HAIN (low short interest)

Beauty Sector

• Avg. Short Interest: 8.8% (+0.1 pp from prior 2 weeks)
• Avg. Days to Cover: 6.2 (+1.8 vs prior 2 weeks)
• Top 2-Wk Increase: IPAR (+0.6 pp), SKIN (+0.4 pp), SBH (+0.2 pp)
• Top 3-Mo Increase: COCO (+1.5 pp), STZ (+1.4 pp), KHC (+0.9 pp) Note: Some 3-month increases might be misattributed, perhaps related to the HPC/Food companies based on company list, please verify context.
• Notable Companies: IPAR, SKIN, COTY (high short interest); COCO, HAIN, SMPL are not in the primary Beauty company list but represent high short interest in other sections); NOTE: Follow-up comment indicates COCO, STZ, KHC are BYND related - please disregard this if context indicates otherwise. For instance, based on standard Beauty list, SBH and COTY have high short interest., COCO might be mentioned elsewhere incorrectly.

Summary Insights

• Across all sectors, short interest averages range from 3.2% (HPC) to 8.8% (Beauty), indicating varying levels of bearish sentiment among investors.
• Food (5.1%) and Beverages (6.3%) show modest increases in collective short interest recently.
• Beauty (8.8%) has the highest average short interest, reflecting the most divergent views or specific catalysts in this sector.
• Short interest is also increasing in all sectors year-over-year (#YoY), contrasting with the slight decrease seen in recent weeks.
• High levels of short interest and decreasing days to cover suggest thinness in covering the short positions, potentially indicating strong upward price pressure if short sellers need to cover quickly. Conversely, companies seeing significant declines in short interest may be experiencing positive sentiment or are perceived as unattractive short candidates.
• Tracking changes in short interest and days to cover provides insights into shifting investor views and potential price moves.

The data highlights significant variance in investor sentiment across the CPG sectors and emphasizes the shifts in specific companies' short interest levels. Investors should correlate these metrics with company-specific news and fundamentals for comprehensive analysis.