2015年-世界发展银行全球_Rebalancing_Bosnia_and_Herzegovina___A_Systematic_Country_Diagnostic_204页_14mb

Rebalancing Bosnia and Herzegovina: A Systematic Country Diagnostic Summary

Core Content

This report, Rebalancing Bosnia and Herzegovina: A Systematic Country Diagnostic, is a comprehensive analysis of the country's economic and social challenges, focusing on how to achieve shared prosperity and sustainable growth. It was prepared by the World Bank Group in 2015, highlighting key areas for reform and policy intervention.

Main Viewpoints

1. Country Context

• History: Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) was part of the former Yugoslavia, which experienced growth until 1980 and stagnation until 1990. The country has faced significant post-war challenges.
• Demographics: BiH is experiencing aging and shrinking population, with a notable rural-urban divide. The rural population is growing in proportion, while urbanization has slowed.
• Institutions: Despite some progress in governance since 1996, BiH's institutions are still far from EU standards. There is a large gap between laws and their implementation, and corruption remains a significant issue, with BiH ranked among the most corrupt countries in Europe.

2. Poverty and Shared Prosperity

• Poverty Dynamics: Growth has been beneficial for the poor, but poverty remains persistent, especially among the B40 (poorest 40% of the population).
• Drivers of Poverty Reduction: Wages and social assistance have been the main contributors to income growth, but social assistance could have played a larger role during the crisis.
• Rural Livelihoods: Rural areas face poor access to infrastructure services, and income sources are limited. The rural-urban poverty gap is partially explained by educational differences.
• Social and Political Exclusion: Social exclusion is a major risk, particularly for Roma communities and other at-risk groups. Gender gaps in employment are also significant.
• Roadmap for Poverty Reduction: The report outlines a strategy to end poverty and create shared prosperity, emphasizing the need for inclusive growth and better social inclusion policies.

3. Restoring Growth and Creating Jobs

• Economic Performance: BiH has had a strong post-war recovery, but economic growth has stagnated since the financial crisis. The economy is consumption-based, with low investment.
• Fiscal Position: Public spending is high, with public wages, pensions, and social transfers dominating the budget. Fiscal policies are counter-cyclical.
• Financial Sector: The financial sector has low profitability due to high non-performing loans (NPLs), and credit growth has been slow. The business environment is poor, with BiH ranked the worst in Southeast Europe in the Doing Business report.
• Private Sector: Private sector development is underdeveloped, and FDI has declined since the 1990s. Manufacturing is the main recipient of FDI, but export performance is weak.
• Infrastructure: Transport infrastructure lags behind regional and EU standards, with low road density, rail passenger traffic, and air transport quality. Electricity supply is high quality, but investment in infrastructure is low.
• Labor Markets: The labor market is rigid, with high minimum wage, difficulty in hiring and firing, and low productivity. Social safety nets are generous, but coverage and targeting need improvement.
• Emerging Issues: The report identifies key reform areas to restore growth and create jobs, including improving the business environment, enhancing labor market flexibility, and increasing investment.

4. Promoting Social Inclusion

• Health Services: Health indicators such as child stunting and obesity are worrisome, and health expenditure is high but focused on inpatient care. Smoking rates are higher among the poor, and vaccination rates are lower for B20 children.
• Education Services: Despite high education spending, student performance is low compared to the region. Early childhood education is underdeveloped, and educational attainment is linked to job opportunities.
• Water and Sanitation: Access to water services is high, but sanitation facilities are underdeveloped, especially for poor communities.

5. Managing Risks for Sustainable Growth

• Environmental and Climate Risks: BiH is expected to experience warmer temperatures and reduced summer rainfall, which could impact agriculture and water availability. Flood risks are also high, and fossil fuel consumption is rising.
• Social Risks: Social exclusion and corruption are major risks, with Roma communities being the most affected. Trust in institutions is low, and gender inequality in employment is significant.

6. Priorities for Accelerated, Inclusive and Sustainable Growth

• Priority Setting: The report identifies key reform areas to achieve the Twin Goals (shared prosperity and sustainable growth), including rebalancing the economy, improving the business environment, and enhancing social inclusion.
• Trade-offs and Complementarities: Some reforms may have trade-offs, but complementary policies can enhance their effectiveness.
• Knowledge Gaps: The report highlights areas where more data and research are needed, particularly in social inclusion, education, and private sector development.

Key Information

• Currency: BAM (Bosnia and Herzegovina Convertible Mark), with 1 BAM = 1.79 USD as of August 5, 2015.
• Fiscal Year: January 1 to December 31.
• Main Challenges:
  • Economic imbalance (consumption-based, low investment).
  • High poverty incidence, especially in rural areas and among the B40.
  • Weak institutions, corruption, and low trust in government.
  • Poor business environment and slow credit growth.
  • Low productivity, rigid labor markets, and gender inequality.
  • Environmental risks, including climate change and fossil fuel dependency.
• Reform Priorities:
  • Improve the business environment to attract FDI and boost exports.
  • Enhance labor market flexibility and social safety nets.
  • Invest in infrastructure, especially transport and energy.
  • Promote social inclusion, particularly for Roma communities and women.
  • Strengthen institutions and governance to improve public service delivery and trust.
  • Address environmental sustainability and climate risks.

Conclusion

The report underscores the need for rebalancing the economy towards production and integration, rather than continued reliance on consumption and aid. It emphasizes inclusive growth, institutional reform, and improved social services as essential for long-term development and sustainable prosperity in BiH.