2024-03-12-世界银行-到2060年实现净零能源_描绘欧洲和中亚走向安全和可持续能源未来的道路（英）_83页_4mb

NET ZERO ENERGY BY 2060: Charting the Path of Europe and Central Asia

Europe and Central Asia (ECA) must address energy security and decarbonization urgently due to geopolitical instability and the energy crisis. The region relies heavily on fossil fuels, with high import dependency.

Key Short-Term Energy Security Findings

• Gas Security: The reduction in Russian gas flows to Europe has significantly impacted prices and availability. Countries like the Western Balkans and Central Asia are particularly vulnerable due to low storage capacity and infrastructure deficits.
• Subsidies: Natural gas subsidies exacerbate energy crises by increasing consumption and hindering decarbonization efforts. Reforming subsidies and introducing energy efficiency measures are critical.
• Investment: Additional investments are needed to mitigate immediate security risks, including infrastructure upgrades and diversification of energy sources.

Key Energy Transition Findings

• Net Zero 2060 Scenario: This ambitious pathway requires decarbonizing power, buildings, transport, and industry by 2060, with significant investments.
• Clean Energy Deployment: Renewables (solar, wind), energy efficiency, electrification, and hydrogen-based fuels are central to decarbonization. Coal phase-out is essential for meeting climate goals.
• Infrastructure: Investments in transmission networks, cross-border trade, and flexible resources (storage, demand response) are vital for managing renewable variability.
• Investment Needs: Achieving Net Zero 2060 requires $4.7 trillion (approx. 4%) of ECA GDP between 2023–2060, with the power sector being the largest investment area.

Conclusion

Energy security and decarbonization are intertwined. The ECA region must prioritize diversification, technological innovation, policy reforms, and international cooperation to achieve a secure and sustainable energy future by 2060.