2021-11-17-科尔尼-The_future_of_fuels_7页_1mb

The Future of Fuels: Synthetic and Biofuels for Hard-to-Decarbonize Industries

Core Content

The transition to carbon neutrality by 2050 requires significant changes in the energy sectors, particularly for hard-to-decarbonize industries such as aviation and shipping. These sectors cannot be fully addressed by current battery technologies or carbon capture and storage (CCS) solutions due to the nature of their operations and the scale of emissions involved. As a result, the development and adoption of synthetic fuels and biofuels are seen as critical pathways to achieving net-zero emissions.

Main Points

• Synthetic Fuels and Biofuels as Key Solutions:

  • Synthetic fuels, derived from low-carbon hydrogen, and biofuels, produced from biomass, are the only viable options for decarbonizing long-distance aviation, heavy shipping, and heavy-duty road transport.
  • These technologies are still in early stages and face significant economic and technical challenges.

• Emissions from Aviation and Shipping:

  • Aviation and shipping together account for about 5% of global CO₂ emissions.
  • In 2019, aviation alone contributed 1 Gt of CO₂ emissions (2.8% of global emissions), while shipping emitted 714 Mt.
  • Despite efficiency improvements, these sectors are expected to continue growing, and their emissions will only be partially addressed by current technologies.

• Challenges of Biomass:

  • Biomass can generate a variety of fuels that are compatible with existing infrastructure and combustion engines.
  • However, its potential is limited due to the need to avoid competition with the food supply chain.
  • Bio-jet fuel is currently significantly more expensive than traditional jet fuel, which hinders its adoption.

• Hydrogen as a Scalable Solution:

  • Green hydrogen has the potential to replace fossil fuels in aviation and shipping, but it requires substantial infrastructure development.
  • Currently, only a small fraction of hydrogen produced is low-carbon, and the majority is "brown" hydrogen, which is carbon-intensive.
  • To meet the demand, around 200 Mt of low-carbon hydrogen would be needed annually, requiring about 100 GW of electrolyzer capacity.

• Cost and Regulatory Considerations:

  • The cost of green hydrogen and synthetic fuels is a major barrier to their adoption.
  • The cost of green hydrogen is heavily dependent on the price of green electricity, which currently represents about 60% of its levelized cost.
  • Regulatory pressure and carbon pricing are expected to play a key role in reducing the cost of CO₂ and accelerating the development of sustainable fuels.

• Complementary Solutions:

  • Both hydrogen and biomass technologies offer complementary solutions for decarbonizing hard-to-tackle industries.
  • A combination of these technologies will be necessary to achieve large-scale and timely decarbonization.

• Government Initiatives:

  • Several governments, including France, have set ambitious targets for the development of sustainable fuels.
  • These initiatives are part of broader national green plans, but additional policies are needed to support the deployment of these technologies.

Key Information

• CO₂ Emissions: Aviation and shipping account for about 5% of global CO₂ emissions.
• Fuel Demand: Aviation and shipping consume approximately 15% of the world's oil, which must be replaced with alternative fuels.
• Current Hydrogen Production: Most hydrogen produced is brown, and only about 1 Mt of low-carbon hydrogen is available annually.
• Biomass Limitations: Sustainable biomass can only supply a fraction of the required fuel for decarbonization, and public acceptance remains a challenge.
• Economic Barriers: Sustainable fuels are currently more expensive than traditional ones, which slows their adoption.
• Infrastructure Needs: Both hydrogen and biofuels require significant investment in production, storage, and transport infrastructure.
• Future Outlook: With advancements in technology and supportive policies, the cost of green hydrogen and synthetic fuels is expected to decline over the next decade.

Conclusion

To achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, the aviation and shipping industries must transition to synthetic fuels and biofuels. While these technologies offer promising pathways, they require substantial investment, technological innovation, and supportive regulations to overcome current limitations and become viable on a large scale.