20160518-新鸿基金融集团-INVESTMENT_DAILY_NOTE_15页_2mb

报告摘要

Investment Daily Note Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive overview of the Hong Kong and global financial markets on May 18, 2016, including key market indices, stock performance, upcoming results, sector analysis, valuations, and external market conditions.

Main Market Indices

Hang Seng Index (HSI): Closed at 20,119, up 1.2% (daily) and down 8.2% (year-to-date).
HSCEI (Hang Seng China Enterprises Index): Closed at 8,426, up 1.4% (daily) and down 12.8% (year-to-date).
Shanghai Composite: Closed at 2,844, down 0.3% (daily) and down 19.7% (year-to-date).
Shenzhen Composite: Closed at 1,815, flat (daily) and down 21.4% (year-to-date).

Market Trends and Performance

The Hang Seng Index and HSCEI showed positive daily movements, with HSI breaking above the 20,000-point threshold.
Tencent (700.HK): Expected to release 1Q results, with a projected revenue growth of 30%-40%. Price resistance estimated at HK$170, and it rose 1.9% before the announcement.
China Life Insurance (2628.HK): Share price advanced 2.2% due to strong performance in the first four months of 2016.

Up/Down Ratios

The market and HSI up/down ratios for the past seven trading days are used to evaluate market performance.
Approximately 1,700 listed companies are considered, excluding GEM, ETFs, and suspended stocks.

Upcoming Results

Tencent (700.HK) is scheduled to release 1Q results on 18/05/2016.
Other companies with upcoming results include ASMC (3355), CSPC PHARMA (1093), EMPEROR CAPITAL (717), LE SAUNDA (738), SINO BIOPHARM (1177), and others, with a range of reporting periods.

Today's Top Picks

Wanguo Mining (3939)
- Price: HK$1.79
- Target: HK$1.96
- Stop-loss: HK$1.70
- Reason: Stock price gapped up, may test 50-day MA.
Sino Energy Int (1096)
- Price: HK$0.42
- Target: HK$0.47
- Stop-loss: HK$0.38
- Reason: Share price rallied with increasing turnover, may place a small bet.

Sector Performance

Top Performing Sectors:
- Oil-related: +2.9%
- Coal: +2.2%
- Local Banks: +1.7%
- Telecoms Equipment: +1.6%
- Chinese Insurers: +1.5%
- Environmental and New Energy: +1.4%
- Chinese Property: +1.4%
- Automobile: +1.3%
- REITs: +1.3%
- Handset and related accessories: +1.3%
Major Stocks in Top Performing Sectors:
- Oil-related: Sinopec (386), PetroChina (857), CNOOC (883)
- Coal: China Shenhua (1088), Yanzhou Coal (1171), China Coal (1898)
- Local Banks: Hang Seng Bank (11), BEA (23), Chong Hing Bank (1111), BOCHK (2388), Dah Sing Banking (2356)
- Telecoms Equipment: China Com Service (552), ZTE (763), Trigiant (1300), Comba (2342)
- Chinese Insurers: China Taiping Ins. (966), NCI (1336), CPIC (2601), Ping An (2318), China Life (2628)
- Environmental and New Energy: China EB Int'l (257), BJ Ent Water (371), China Longyuan (916), Xinyi Solar (968), CGN Power (1816)
- Chinese Property: COLI (688), China Res Land (1109), Sunac (1918), Country Garden (2007), Evergrande (3333)
- Automobile: Geely Auto (175), Dongfeng Motor (489), BRILLIANCE CHI (1114), BYD Co. (1211), Great Wall Motor (2333)
- REITs: Yuexiu REIT (405), Fortune REIT (778), Prosperity REIT (808), LINK Reit (823), Champion REIT (2778)
- Handset and related accessories: Tongda Group (698), AAC Tech (2018), Sunny Optical (2382), Coolpad Group (2369), TCL Comm (2618)
- Local Property: CK Hutchison (1), Henderson Land (12), SHK Prop (16), New World Dev (17), Sino Land (83)
- Airline: Cathay Pacific (293), China East Air (670), Air China (753), China South Air (1055)
- Infrastructure: China Railway (390), China Railway Cons. (1186), CSR Corp. (1766), China Comm. Cons. (1800), China Machinery Eng. (1829)
- Gaming: Galaxy Ent. (27), SJM Hldg (880), Wynn Macau (1128), Sands China (1928), MGM China (2282)
- Technology: Kingdee (268), Chinasoft (354), Tencent (700), NetDragon (777), Kingsoft (3888)

Valuations and Forward P/E

Hang Seng Index: FY16E P/E = 10.9, Long-term average = 11.0, Deviation from average = -0.6%, FY1 EPS growth = -7.7%, FY2 EPS growth = 10.3%
HSCEI: FY16E P/E = 7.0, Long-term average = 7.9, Deviation from average = -12.2%, FY1 EPS growth = -5.3%, FY2 EPS growth = 9.3%
Shanghai Composite: FY16E P/E = 12.9, Long-term average = 10.7, Deviation from average = +20.5%, FY1 EPS growth = +20.8%, FY2 EPS growth = 13.5%
S&P 500: FY16E P/E = 17.5, Long-term average = 15.3, Deviation from average = +14.1%, FY1 EPS growth = +8.8%, FY2 EPS growth = 13.6%

External Market Conditions

US CPI: Rose 0.4% in April, the highest since February 2013, raising concerns about potential rate hikes.
Fed FOMC Minutes: Expected on 19 May 2016, which may provide guidance on rate hike schedules.
US Stocks: Tumbled, with the Dow Jones down 180 points, S&P 500 down 19 points, and NASDAQ down 59 points.
ADR Impact: ADRs dropped, effectively putting HSI down 228 points.
Commodities and Precious Metals:
- New York Crude Oil (WTI): Up 0.59 to US$48.31/bbl
- New York Gold Futures: Up US$7.2 to US$1,281.40/oz
- CRB Index: At 185.9, up 3.1% (5D), up 6.7% (1M), up 5.5% (YTD), down 19.4% (y-y)

Market Data: Best and Worst Performers

Best Performers (HSI, HSCEI, HSCI):

ANTON OILFIELD (3337.HK): +9.1%
REXLOT HOLDINGS (555.HK): +6.9%
JU TENG INTL HDG (3336.HK): +5.9%
CHINA HONGQIAO (1378.HK): +5.8%
YANCHANG PETRO (346.HK): +5.6%

Worst Performers (HSI, HSCEI, HSCI):

YASHILI INT'L (1230.HK): -5.3%
COOLPAD (2369.HK): -4.5%
MAOYE INTL HLDGS (848.HK): -2.6%
CHINA PUBLIC PRO (1094.HK): -2.6%
SHENGUAN HOLDING (829.HK): -2.6%

HSCI Volume Filter

POLYTEC ASSET HO (208.HK): +363.2% volume increase
YANCHANG PETRO (346.HK): +295.1% volume increase
TRINITY LTD (891.HK): +172.2% volume increase
YUEXIU PROPERTY (123.HK): +166.9% volume increase
CEB BANK-H (6818.HK): +136.4% volume increase

Most Short Sold Stocks

SINOFERT HOLDING (297.HK): 1.0% daily change, 0.0% of total short sell turnover
ASM PACIFIC (522.HK): 0.0% daily change, 73.3% of own turnover
TCC INTL HLDGS (1136.HK): 0.8% daily change, 72.5% of own turnover
WANT WANT CHINA (2368.HK): -1.4% daily change, 65.5% of own turnover
SWIRE PACIFIC-A (19.HK): 0.6% daily change, 70.2% of own turnover
TOWNGAS CHINA (1083.HK): 0.2% daily change, 65.8% of own turnover
CHINA COM CONS-H (1800.HK): 8.8% daily change, 48.8% of own turnover
CHINA LIFE-H (2628.HK): 16.8% daily change, 46.9% of own turnover

Interest Rates and Exchange Rates

U.S. 2-year Treasury Yield: 0.8309%, up 10.30 bps (5D), up 8.95 bps (1M), down 21.68 bps (YTD), up 25.42% (y-y)
U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield: 1.7654%, up 2.87 bps (5D), down 0.57 bps (1M), down 50.40 bps (YTD), down 46.83% (y-y)
USD/HKD: 7.7625, flat (5D), down 0.1% (1M), down 0.2% (YTD), down 0.2% (y-y)
USD/JPY: 109.03, down 0.6% (5D), down 0.2% (1M), up 10.1% (YTD), up 10.0% (y-y)

A-share Premium to H-share

LUOYANG GLASS-H (1108): H-share price = HK$4.38, A-share price = RMB 26.87, premium = 630.3%
ZHEJIANG SHIBA-H (1057): H-share price = HK$7.96, A-share price = RMB 25.28, premium = 278.1%
SHENJI GROUP-H (300): H-share price = HK$2.14, A-share price = RMB 6.59, premium = 266.6%
PETROCHINA-H (857): H-share price = HK$5.42, A-share price = RMB 7.24, premium = 59.0%
ZTE-H (763): H-share price = HK$10.12, A-share price = RMB 13.50, premium = 58.8%
CHINA LIFE-H (2628): H-share price = HK$16.80, A-share price = RMB 20.73, premium = 46.9%

Key Information Summary

Market Conditions: The Hang Seng Index and HSCEI showed positive movement, while US stocks declined due to rate hike concerns.
Stock in Focus: Yuexiu REIT (405.HK) is highlighted for its strong defensive qualities, high dividend yield, and favorable valuation.
Top Picks: Wanguo Mining (3939) and Sino Energy Int (1096) are recommended based on their recent performance and potential.
Sector Analysis: Oil-related, coal, and local banks were among the top performers.
Valuation Insights: The Hang Seng Index and HSCEI are undervalued relative to their long-term averages.
External Factors: US CPI and Fed minutes are critical for rate hike expectations. Commodities and gold prices were influenced by weak US equities and dollar movements.
Short Selling: Certain stocks, such as SINOFERT HOLDING and ASM PACIFIC, showed high short-selling activity.
A-share Premium: Significant premiums exist for several companies listed on both A-share and H-share markets, indicating potential for arbitrage opportunities.