20141028-大和证券-Asia_Pacific_Daily_54页_3mb

报告摘要

Name: Daiwa Investment Conference
Location: Hong Kong
Date: 18-21 November 2014
Venue: Island Shangri-La, Hong Kong; Pacific Place, Supreme Court Road, Admiralty

St. Shine Optical (1565 TT):
- Analyst: Helen Chien
- Rating: Sell → Underperform
- Target Price: TWD424.00 (from TWD525.00)
- Downside: 8.0%
- 3Q14E Net Profit Growth: -20.3% YoY
- Sales Growth: -3.4% YoY
- Reason: No near-term catalysts, slower growth expectations, and lower gross margin due to fiercer competition
IHH Healthcare (IHH MK):
- Analyst: Sharifah Farah
- Rating: Reduce → Add
- Target Price: RM5.50 (up 37.5%)
- Reason: Expansion plans and strong performance
TISCO Financial Group (TISCO TB):
- Analyst: Sarachada
- Rating: Sell → Buy
- Target Price: Bt50.00 (up 25.0%)
- Reason: Two stages of turnaround and positive outlook

KEPCO (015760 KS):
- Analyst: Mike Oh
- Rating: Outperform
- Page: P.9
LG Uplus (032640 KS):
- Analyst: Thomas Y. Kwon
- Rating: Outperform
- Page: P.13
Paradise (034230 KS):
- Analyst: Thomas Y. Kwon
- Rating: Outperform
- Page: P.16
Raffles Medical Group (RFMD SP):
- Analyst: Jame Osman
- Rating: Outperform
- Page: P.19
Malindo Feedmill (MAIN IJ):
- Analyst: Michael W. Setjoadi
- Rating: Buy
- Page: P.23

China Economy:
- Analyst: Kevin Lai
- Page: P.24
- Key Points: Money outflows, policy constraints, currency pressure
Indonesia Strategy:
- Analyst: Harry Su
- Page: P.25
- Key Points: Cabinet update, no dream team
Technical Daily Comment:
- Analyst: Eiji Kinouchi
- Page: P.26
- Key Points: Technical Tips for Institutions
Euro Wrap-up:
- Analyst: Robert Kuenzel
- Page: P.28
- Key Points: Overview

China Marine Sector:
- Analyst: Kelvin Lau
- Page: P.30
US West Coast Port Congestion:
- Impact: Short-term negative for shipping, positive for CIMC and airlines
Angang Steel (347 HK):
- Analyst: Joey Chen
- Page: P.31
- Key Point: 3Q14 results missed expectations due to higher income tax
Biostime International Holdings Limited (1112 HK):
- Analyst: Anson Chan
- Page: P.32
- Key Point: 3Q14 operations update
China International Marine Containers (CIMC) (2039 HK):
- Analyst: Kelvin Lau
- Page: P.33
- Key Point: 3Q14 net profit up 38% YoY, strong but not exciting
HTC (2498 TT):
- Analyst: Kylie Huang
- Page: P.34
- Key Point: 3Q14 results preview: stay cautious

Market	1D	1M	YTD	13E	14E	13E	14E
TPX	1.0	-5.8	-3.7	6.2	13.2	13.7	12.1
HSCEI	-0.8	-2.6	-4.7	8.4	7.9	6.0	5.6
HSI	-0.7	-2.3	-0.7	5.8	8.1	10.2	9.5
KOSPI	0.3	-4.9	-3.9	15.5	25.6	11.9	9.5
TWSE	-0.2	-4.0	0.2	18.2	9.4	13.8	12.6
SENSEX*	-0.4	0.0	26.4	15.3	16.3	17.5**	15.1**
FSSTI	0.1	-2.0	1.9	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
FBMKLCI*	0.2	-0.9	-2.3	-0.0	9.1	16.2**	14.8**
SET*	0.5	-3.3	19.2	8.8	13.7	14.5**	12.8**
PCOMP*	-0.0	-2.2	20.6	6.4	13.4	20.1**	17.7**
JCI*	-1.0	-2.1	17.5	9.7	12.1	15.1**	13.5**
AS51	0.9	2.7	2.0	5.8	9.0	14.3	13.1

*Valuation based on MSCI Universe
**MSCI index priced as of 24 Oct

3Q14E Gross Margin: 39.0% (vs. 44.1% in 2Q14 and 43.5% in 3Q13)
Sales in Taiwan (YoY): 19.6% (down from 20.0% in 2013)
Sales in Japan (YoY): 59.0% (down from 60.0% in 2013)
Sales in China (YoY): 5.2% (up from 2.0% in 2013)
Sales in Other Countries (YoY): 16.3% (down from 16.4% in 2013)
Total Sales (YoY): -3.5%

Metric	2014E	2015E	2016E
Revenue	5,445	5,766	6,149
Operating Profit	1,817	1,916	2,068
Net Profit	1,577	1,643	1,753
Core EPS (FD)	31.281	32.594	34.765
EPS Change (%)	-11.4	4.2	6.7
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%)	-9.8	-13.5	-17.7
PER (x)	14.7	14.1	13.3
Dividend Yield (%)	4.8	5.0	5.4
DPS (TWD)	22.210	23.142	24.683
EBITDA (TWDm)	2,099	2,212	2,379
Free Cash Flow (TWDm)	1,531	1,705	1,818

Item	2014E	2015E	2016E
Cash & Short-term Investment	2,285	2,829	3,458
Inventory	715	766	820
Accounts Receivable	870	922	983
Total Current Assets	3,936	4,583	5,327
Fixed Assets	3,030	3,166	3,282
Total Assets	7,098	7,881	8,749
Short-term Debt	100	100	100
Accounts Payable	1,244	1,333	1,426
Total Current Liabilities	1,754	2,007	2,312
Long-term Debt	1,002	1,055	1,109
Total Liabilities	2,755	3,062	3,421
Shareholders’ Equity	4,343	4,819	5,327
EV (TWDm)	22,059	21,568	20,993
Net Debt/(Cash)	-1,183	-1,674	-2,249
BVPS (TWD)	86.134	95.586	105.668

Metric	2014E	2015E	2016E
Sales (YoY)	4.3	5.9	6.6
EBITDA (YoY)	3.6	5.4	7.5
Operating Profit (YoY)	2.4	5.4	8.0
Net Profit (YoY)	-1.3	4.2	6.7
Gross Profit Margin	42.9	42.2	42.0
EBITDA Margin	38.6	38.4	38.7
Operating Profit Margin	33.4	33.2	33.6
Net Profit Margin	29.0	28.5	28.5
ROAE	38.3	35.9	34.5
ROAA	23.7	21.9	21.1
ROCE	35.9	33.6	33.1
ROIC	50.8	51.7	55.8

Daiwa Investment Conference: Scheduled in Hong Kong from 18-21 November 2014, providing a platform for investors and analysts to discuss market trends and company performances.
St. Shine Optical: Downgraded to Underperform with a reduced target price. Forecasted net profit decline due to slower sales and margin contraction.
IHH Healthcare: Upgraded to Add with a higher target price, reflecting positive expansion outlook.
TISCO Financial Group: Upgraded to Buy, with a target price increase, due to a turnaround strategy.
Other Research: Includes various companies with Outperform and Buy ratings, highlighting positive performance and growth potential.
Macro Research: Focuses on regional economic factors such as China's economy, Indonesia's strategy, and Euro outlook.
Company Roadshows: Scheduled for multiple companies across different regions, indicating active investor engagement.
Regional Indices: Show mixed performance, with some markets experiencing declines and others showing growth.
Financial Summary: Indicates declining sales and net profit for St. Shine Optical, with a reduced target price and cautious outlook.
Balance Sheet and Ratios: Reflect the company's financial health and performance trends, with a focus on cash flow and profitability.