2009年-世界发展银行全球_The_Potential_of_Regional_Power_Sector_Integration___Nile_Basin_Initiative_Transmission_and_Trading_Case_Study_38页_1mb

Summary of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) Transmission & Trading Case Study

Core Content

The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), established in 1999, is a regional cooperation framework aimed at promoting the cooperative development of the Nile River, sharing socioeconomic benefits, and enhancing regional peace and security. The NBI includes nine member countries and Eritrea as an observer. The initiative has focused on integrating the power sectors of these countries through regional power trade and infrastructure development to address energy deficits and support economic growth.

Main Motivations and Objectives for Trade

• The NBI region is marked by underdevelopment, low per capita incomes, and high levels of poverty.
• Electrification rates vary significantly, with Egypt having the highest rate (98%) and others as low as 2%.
• Average electricity consumption is very low (77 kWh per capita per annum), far below global and regional averages.
• There are significant differences in the electricity supply mix, with Egypt relying heavily on thermal generation and upstream countries having substantial hydropower potential.
• Regional integration is seen as essential to balance supply and demand, improve reliability, and enable cross-border electricity trade to meet the growing energy needs of the region.

Key Projects and Trade Solutions

Projects Being Implemented

• Ethiopia Power Export Project: Interconnection of Ethiopia and Sudan via 454 km of 230 kV lines. Expected to be operational in 2010. Cost: US$59 million.
• Nile Equatorial Lakes Interconnector Project: Construction and upgrading of 769 km of 110 kV and 220 kV lines connecting Burundi, DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda, and Tanzania. Cost: US$240 million. Expected completion by December 2013.
• Regional Rusumo Falls Hydroelectric and Multipurpose Project: A 60-80 MW hydropower station with transmission links to Burundi, Rwanda, and Tanzania. Feasibility study ongoing. Estimated cost: US$355 million.

Expected Trade Volumes

• These projects are expected to increase cross-border electricity trade to at least 220 MW in 2013, rising to 620 MW by 2030.

Current Status and Future Plans

• Cross-border electricity trade is currently limited, with only a few significant projects in place.
• The NBI has adopted a hybrid approach combining a top-down Shared Vision Program (SVP) and two bottom-up Subsidiary Action Programs (ENSAP and NELSAP).
• Future growth in electricity trade will depend on completing the transmission backbone and establishing market and operational rules for regional trading.
• The long-term goal is to transition from bilateral contracts to a competitive regional electricity market, which may involve the establishment of a regional regulator and dispatch center.

Economic and Political Context

• The Nile is the world's longest river, with a basin covering 3.4 million km² and supporting over 350 million people.
• The region has uneven population distribution, with high concentrations in certain areas.
• Most NBI countries are classified as Least Developed Countries (LDCs), with low GDP per capita and limited infrastructure development.
• Egypt is the largest economy in the region, contributing 50% of the NBI's GDP and 82% of its electricity sector.

Supply Options

• The main energy resources are hydropower, thermal, geothermal, coal, and renewables (wind, solar, and methane from Lake Kivu).
• Hydropower accounts for a large share of installed capacity, especially when excluding Egypt.
• Egypt's electricity supply is dominated by thermal (mainly gas), while other countries have more hydro-based systems.
• Renewable energy sources, particularly geothermal and solar, are also being explored as part of the regional energy mix.

Demand Trends

• Egypt has experienced rapid load growth, with an average annual increase of over 6% in both demand and energy generation.
• Other NBI countries are also seeing high demand growth, though not always matched by adequate generation capacity.
• This has led to frequent load shedding and limited ability to meet new demand, which has hindered investment and GDP growth.
• A severe regional drought in 2002-2003 significantly impacted hydroelectric supply, prompting the use of emergency thermal generation.

Energy Tariffs

• Electricity tariffs vary widely across NBI countries, from 2.3 USc/kWh in Egypt to 20.0 USc/kWh in Rwanda.
• High tariffs in some countries are partly due to government subsidies.
• Tariff disparities may create economic incentives for regional trade, as cheaper electricity from upstream countries could be exported to downstream ones.

Institutional and Regulatory Arrangements

• The NBI has established a governance structure with a Secretariat in Entebbe, Uganda, and a Technical Advisory Committee (Nile-TAC).
• National governments and regional institutions play a crucial role in implementing and regulating the integration process.
• Regulatory agencies are being developed to ensure compliance with regional trading rules.
• Outside agencies, such as the World Bank, UNDP, and others, have supported the development of the NBI's power sector initiatives.

Key Milestones in Regional Power Integration

• 1955: Kenya-Uganda electricity agreement signed.
• 1958: Owen Falls Power Station and Ruzizi I transmission line commissioned.
• 1974: Organisation pour l'Energie des Grands Lacs (EGL) formed.
• 1976: Economic Community of the Great Lakes Countries (CEPGL) formed.
• 1984: Convention to build Ruzizi II and establish SINELAC signed.
• 1989: Ruzizi II begins operations.
• 1997: Request for forming a Consultative Group.
• 1998: Nile Basin Technical Advisory Committee (Nile-TAC) formed.
• 1999: NBI launched; Secretariat established in Entebbe.
• 2001: Approval of Shared Vision Program project portfolio.
• 2002: Offices in Ethiopia and Rwanda established to implement ENSAP and NELSAP.
• 2003: Power Declaration signed by energy ministers.
• 2005: East African Power Pool (EAPP) established; NELSAP Power Master Plan endorsed.
• 2009: Formation of RAERESA (Regional Association of Energy Regulators for East and Southern Africa).

Conclusion

The NBI's power sector integration efforts are driven by the need to address energy deficits, promote economic development, and ensure reliable electricity supply. The region has a rich potential for hydropower and other renewable resources, and the implementation of key projects is expected to significantly increase cross-border electricity trade. However, achieving these goals requires continued investment in transmission infrastructure, institutional development, and regulatory frameworks to support a competitive regional electricity market.