20180518-USDA-Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook_29页_1mb

Summary of Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook (2019)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an outlook for the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry sectors for the year 2019, highlighting production forecasts, price trends, and export/import dynamics. It also includes a review of the 2018 performance and forecasts for the following year.

Main Forecasts for 2019

• Beef Production: Expected to increase by 1.8% to 27.7 billion pounds.
• Pork Production: Projected to rise by 3.1% to 28 billion pounds.
• Broilers Production: Anticipated to grow by 2.3%.
• Turkey Production: Projected to increase by 0.9%.
• Eggs Production: Forecast to rise by 2.1%.
• Milk Production: Expected to increase by 1.3% to 221.5 billion pounds.

Key Trends and Insights

Beef Sector

• Exports: Expected to set a new record in 2019 at 3.150 billion pounds, driven by strong global demand and increased U.S. supplies.
• Imports: Projected at 3.140 billion pounds in 2019, with most coming from Oceania and North America.
• Cattle Marketings: Expected to moderate in 2019 due to higher carcass weights and increased slaughter numbers.
• Carcass Weights: Slight rebound in late 2018 and early 2019, with steer carcass weights above 2017 levels.
• Cattle Prices: Feeder steer prices are expected to range from $135.00 to $147.00 per cwt in 2019, with a seasonal rebound in the second quarter.

Dairy Sector

• Exports: Reached record highs in March 2018 (4.255 billion pounds on a skim-solids milk-equivalent basis) and are expected to grow in 2019.
• Milk Production: Projected to increase by 1.3% to 221.5 billion pounds.
• Milk Prices: The all-milk price is forecast to range from $16.25 to $17.25 per cwt in 2019, up from the 2018 forecast of $16.20-$16.70 per cwt.
• Feed Prices: Projected to rise, with corn and soybean meal prices expected to be $3.30-$4.30 per bushel and $330-$370 per short ton, respectively.
• Stock Levels: Ending stocks are expected to decrease slightly in 2019 compared to 2018.

Pork Sector

• Production: Expected to increase by 3% in 2019 due to expanded processing capacity.
• Hog Prices: Forecast to average $43-$46 per cwt, slightly higher than 2018.
• Exports: Projected to reach 6.125 billion pounds in 2019, a 4% increase from 2018.
• Import Trends: Imports are expected to remain stable at around 1.1 billion pounds, with exports accounting for 22% of total production.

Other Key Sectors

Poultry and Eggs

• Broiler Production: Expected to increase due to heavier birds and new facility construction.
• Turkey Production: Projected to grow only marginally in 2019.
• Egg Production: Expected to rise by 2.1%, with prices reverting to more normal levels after a seasonal decline.

Summary of 2018 Performance

• Beef Production: Lower than expected due to slower marketings, with a full-year forecast of 27.2 billion pounds.
• Dairy Exports: Reached record levels in March 2018, with increased prices and exports.
• Pork Exports: Set a record high in the first quarter of 2018, with strong performance in South Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.
• Cattle Imports: Declined by 9.7% in the first quarter of 2018, but expected to rise slightly in 2019.

Conclusion

The 2019 outlook for U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry sectors shows a general trend of production growth, with beef, pork, broilers, turkey, eggs, and milk all expected to see increases. However, some sectors like veal and lamb are projected to experience little to no growth. Export growth is anticipated, particularly in beef and pork, while import levels are expected to remain stable. Price trends are mixed, with some products seeing increases due to strong demand and others facing pressure from supply and feed costs.