IMF-评估结构改革对潜在产出的影响：以摩洛哥为例（英）-2023.10-34页_811kb

Assessing the Impact of Structural Reforms on Potential Output: The Case of Morocco

Over the past two decades, Morocco's potential output growth declined from approximately 4.5% (2000–2007) to about 3% (2018–2019), primarily due to a drop in labor input, including slower population growth and declining labor force participation, and lower capital accumulation. The 2020 pandemic exacerbated the situation by reducing total factor productivity (TFP), though output recovered by 2021–22. Morocco's structural reform agenda, aligned with the New Development Model (NMD), focuses on governance, education, social protection, health, and product market regulation to boost growth.

Key findings from the analysis include:

• Labor input decline accounted for three-quarters of the downward trend in potential growth.
• TFP dropped during the pandemic but may rebound from digitalization.
• Morocco's structural gaps relative to the OECD are large in governance (40% below), education (35% below), and social protection and health (40% below).
• Structural reforms could increase potential output by 5–10% if half the gaps are closed within 15 years under a medium-success scenario.
• Reforms have significant positive effects on output over time, with governance reforms delivering the largest gains.
• The gender gap in labor force participation (22% vs. 50% OECD) is critical, potentially contributing up to three-fourths of overall output gains.
• Macroeconomic simulations show output gains ranging from 1% to 22% depending on fiscal financing method (debt vs. budget-neutral) and reform success.

Policy recommendations stress the importance of timely and effective implementation. Fiscal implications depend on debt financing versus budget neutrality, with debt crowding out private investment in the long term. Closing the gender gap is deemed particularly essential for inclusive growth.