20241020-国盛证券-高频半月观_有喜有忧_喜大于忧_18页_1mb

Macro Regular High-Frequency Bi-Monthly Overview — Optimism Outweighs Concerns

Over the past half-month (October 7–20), macroeconomic high-frequency data were tracked across six dimensions: supply, demand, prices, inventory, logistics, and liquidity. The bottom-line conclusion is that while the data present both positive and negative aspects, the outlook is cautiously optimistic, with the benefits outweighing the concerns.

Key Findings:

1. Supply: Industrial activity indicators suggest a gradual recovery. The average utilization rate for blast furnaces increased by 23 percentage points to 81.3%, while cement grinding capacity rose by 0.8 percentage points to 52.2%, exceeding seasonal expectations.
2. Demand: Housing sales improved, with first-tier cities reporting a significant rebound in both new and second-hand home transactions. Despite this, broader indicators such as electricity consumption and steel demand remain weaker than historical trends.
3. Prices: Midstream industrial commodities saw price hikes, with steel and cement prices rising notably. Conversely, food prices (pork and vegetables) and energy costs (coal) remained volatile or declined.
4. Inventory: Energy inventory levels increased (particularly coal), while industrial metals and building materials continued to deplete rapidly.
5. Logistics: Air freight and export shipping rates declined, though domestic freight volumes saw a slight recovery.
6. Liquidity: With the majority of fiscal policies having been recently enacted, market liquidity indicators suggest a gradual tightening, while currency and bond yields showed mixed movements.

Looking Ahead:
The fundamental shift in policy orientation signals that the underlying economic logic is transitioning toward proactive fiscal expansion. Citing newly introduced measures, the report anticipates a stronger policy stimulus in the near term and remains watchful regarding upcoming fiscal meetings.

The analysis presents a cautiously optimistic outlook amidst pressures from external factors, supply-demand imbalances, and policy adjustments.