2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Republic_of_San_Marino_2016_Article_IV_Consultation_42页_1mb

IMF Article IV Consultation with the Republic of San Marino (2016)

Core Content

The 2016 Article IV consultation with the Republic of San Marino, conducted by the IMF, assessed the country's economic situation, highlighting ongoing challenges and opportunities for recovery and sustainable growth. The consultation took place between March 8 and March 16, 2016, with the staff report finalized on April 21, 2016, and the Executive Board meeting on May 6, 2016.

San Marino's economy has been in transition since the collapse of its offshore banking model following the global financial crisis, resulting in a significant loss of output—approximately a third since 2008. The banking sector remains weak, with a high stock of nonperforming loans (NPLs), which has had a negative impact on economic performance and growth potential.

The country has made progress in rebuilding fiscal buffers, maintaining a sound fiscal position, and improving the business environment. However, the financial sector's fragility continues to pose a major risk to the economy's recovery and long-term stability.

Main Points

Economic Recovery and Outlook

• After six years of recession, the economy is beginning to stabilize and show signs of modest recovery.
• Real GDP growth is expected to be around 1% in 2016 and in the medium-term, driven by consumption and investment recovery.
• The recovery is still fragile and insufficient to restore pre-crisis levels of economic activity.

Financial Sector Challenges

• The banking system is characterized by high NPLs, relatively low loan loss provisions, and weak capital adequacy.
• The largest bank, Cassa di Risparmio della Repubblica di San Marino (CRSM), remains undercapitalized and loss-making, despite three rounds of public recapitalization.
• The capital adequacy ratio is at 11.9%, below the minimum requirement of 11%.
• NPLs account for 45.6% of total loans and 29.4% of total loan loss provisions.
• Nonperforming loans are largely concentrated in nonresident-related assets, especially in Italy.

Policy Recommendations

• Financial Sector: Implement comprehensive asset quality reviews (AQRs), improve provisioning, and strengthen capitalization. Encourage the creation of a joint asset management company (AMC) for NPL resolution.
• Fiscal Policy: Pursue a gradual fiscal adjustment of 1% of GDP over four years to rebuild buffers. Focus on containing public sector wage costs, pension and health benefits, and introduce a VAT system to increase revenue.
• Structural Reforms: Improve the business environment, including debt enforcement and insolvency mechanisms, to support economic diversification. Continue international cooperation, especially with Italy.

Risks and Constraints

• The weak financial sector continues to hinder economic recovery and growth.
• The banking system's capital adequacy is below the minimum, with CRSM still significantly undercapitalized.
• The country's small size and lack of access to international capital markets limit its ability to diversify and attract investment.
• The real estate market is a key source of NPLs, and restrictions on nonresident ownership impede its recovery.
• Cross-border NPLs complicate resolution due to legal and jurisdictional issues.

Key Information

Economic Indicators

• GDP per capita (2013): 56,112 USD
• Population (December 2013): 31,460
• Life expectancy at birth (2010): 83.2 years
• Adult literacy (2008): 96%

GDP Growth (Percent Change)

Public Finances (Percent of GDP)

Financial Soundness Indicators (Percent)

CRSM Recapitalization

• The fourth recapitalization of CRSM is ongoing, with a capital gap of €54 million.
• The state is funding €40 million through a hybrid bond, while the remaining €14 million is to be covered by other means.
• CRSM's assets declined to €1.7 billion, or 121% of GDP, by end-2015.
• The bank's capital adequacy ratio is at 7.5%, and its NPL coverage ratio is at 29.4%.

Summary of IMF Staff Recommendations

• Accelerate the restructuring of CRSM and improve its governance.
• Conduct comprehensive AQRs for all banks and ensure adequate provisioning.
• Strengthen the regulatory and supervisory framework to prevent future NPL crises.
• Encourage the opening of the real estate market to nonresidents to support NPL resolution.
• Explore external financing options to reduce the bank-sovereign link and build fiscal buffers.
• Implement structural reforms to enhance competitiveness and economic diversification.

Authorities' Views

• The authorities acknowledge the slow recovery and the importance of addressing NPLs.
• They emphasize the need to improve economic flexibility and competitiveness.
• They recognize the importance of structural reforms and international cooperation.
• They note the challenges in addressing capacity constraints in the state administration and the Central Bank of San Marino.

Conclusion

The IMF concluded that while San Marino has made progress in stabilizing its economy and rebuilding fiscal buffers, the financial sector remains a critical challenge. The country needs to strengthen its banking system, improve the business environment, and diversify its economic model to achieve sustainable growth. Continued international cooperation, especially with Italy, is essential for long-term stability and economic integration.