WTO-世界贸易数据评论2018年（英文）-2018.11-213页-9mb

Summary of the WTO Statistical Review 2018

Core Content

The World Trade Statistical Review 2018 provides an in-depth analysis of global trade trends and developments, focusing on merchandise trade, commercial services, regional trade agreements, digital trade, global value chains, and WTO membership. It highlights the resilience and growth of world trade in 2017 and the early 2018 period, emphasizing the role of trade in economic growth and development.

Main Points

• Global Trade Growth in 2017:

  • Merchandise trade grew by 4.7% in volume terms, the strongest growth in six years.
  • The ratio of trade growth to GDP growth returned to its historical average of 1.5, up from 1.0 in the years following the 2008 financial crisis.
  • Trade in commercial services grew by 8%, with IP-related services leading the growth at 10%.

• Regional Performance:

  • Asia had the highest trade volume growth at 8.1%.
  • Developing economies accounted for 43% of global merchandise trade in 2017, with 50.5% of their total exports going to other developing economies.
  • Africa saw a 25% increase in travel exports and record growth in international tourism revenue.

• Top Traders:

  • The top three merchandise traders in 2017 were China, the United States, and Germany, collectively accounting for US$5.3 trillion in exports.
  • The top three commercial services traders were the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany, with their combined exports totaling US$1.4 trillion.
  • Among developing economies, China, India, and Singapore were the leading commercial services traders.

• Digital Trade:

  • Global e-commerce reached US$27.7 trillion in 2016, up from US$19.3 trillion in 2012.
  • B2B e-commerce is six times larger than B2C e-commerce.

• Global Value Chains (GVCs):

  • In 2011, 68% of the value added in automotive exports came from non-motor industries.
  • The share of services in the value added content of automotive exports reached 40% in 2011.

• WTO Membership:

  • WTO members accounted for 98% of global merchandise trade in 2017, up from 88% in 1995.
  • The report also provides data on WTO members, observers, and non-members.

• Trade Policy Developments:

  • The report emphasizes the importance of multilateral trade rules and the WTO's role in monitoring trade trends and resolving trade tensions.
  • Trade facilitation and Aid for Trade initiatives are highlighted as important tools for promoting trade.
  • The 11th WTO Ministerial Conference is noted as a key event in 2017.

• Challenges and Risks:

  • Rising trade tensions in early 2018 could threaten global trade recovery.
  • The elasticity of trade with respect to GDP growth rebounded from 0.8 in 2016 to 1.5 in 2017, close to the historical average.
  • Structural factors such as China's economic rebalancing and lack of further trade liberalization could impact future trade growth.

Key Information

• Data Sources:

  • The data is sourced from WTO, UNCTAD, ITC, IMF, OECD, and national statistics.
  • All value figures are expressed in US dollars.

• Methodology:

  • Merchandise trade figures are based on customs data.
  • Merchandise exports are reported at f.o.b. and imports at c.i.f..
  • The report includes experimental datasets on bilateral trade in services with OECD and trade by mode of supply.

• Additional Notes:

  • The report acknowledges the importance of reliable data in trade policy analysis.
  • Digital trade measurement is an evolving area with ongoing initiatives to improve data collection.
  • A Handbook on Measuring Digital Trade is expected to be issued by the WTO and OECD by the end of 2018.

Structure of the Report

• I. Introduction:

  • Acknowledgements and a message from the Director-General.

• II. Highlights of World Trade in 2017:

  • Merchandise trade, commercial services, regional performance, digital trade, GVCs, WTO membership, and world maps.

• III. Latest Trends in World Trade (2017-2018):

  • General trends and drivers of trade in 2017, and trade and output in early 2018.

• IV. Goods and Services - What is Being Traded?:

  • Detailed breakdowns of merchandise and commercial services trade.

• V. Global Perspectives - Who Are the Leading Players?:

  • Regional performance, RTAs, and developing economies.

• VI. Trade Policy Developments:

  • Trade monitoring, the 11th WTO Ministerial Conference, trade facilitation, Aid for Trade, and trade finance.

• VII. Composition, Definitions & Methodology:

  • Definitions, methodology, trade policy indicators, and statistical sources.

• VIII. Statistical Tables:

  • Includes detailed tables and charts for trade data analysis.

Conclusion

The WTO Statistical Review 2018 underscores the importance of trade in driving economic growth, development, and job creation. It highlights the resilience of global trade in 2017, the recovery of commercial services, and the role of digital trade and global value chains in shaping trade dynamics. The report also emphasizes the need for reliable data and the challenges posed by trade tensions and structural economic shifts. The WTO continues to play a crucial role in monitoring, analyzing, and supporting the global trading system.