20240222-大越期货-菜粕早报_18页_988kb

报告摘要

The rapeseed presscake market is facing an overall bearish trend due to factors such as short-term low demand in aquaculture and increasing Canadian imports, while some support comes from low inventories and high import costs.
Short-term fundamentals show a mix: oilseed crushing remains low, keeping inventories and import cost supportive, but this is offset by seasonal demand weakness and expected high Canadian yields.
Technical indicators suggest price weakness, with the market below its 20-day moving average and exhibiting downward momentum.
Basis and inventory data indicate some positive elements, like low spot-futures spreads and declining inventory, but these are weighed down by broader bearish factors.

For the short term, rapeseed presscake is expected to trade in a range of 2400 to 2460 for the RM2405 contract.
Options strategy is recommended to be观望 (cautious with no immediate trading).

Downward risks include continued weakness in aquaculture demand and potential surges from Canadian oilseed imports.
Bullish factors like low import arrivals and falling oilseed inventories provide some support but are not dominant.

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