2000年-世界发展银行全球_Ethiopia___Public_Expenditure_Review_Volume_1_Main_Report_108页_9mb

Ethiopia Public Expenditure Review Summary

Core Content

This document is the Ethiopia Public Expenditure Review (PER) 2000, a collaborative effort between the Government of Ethiopia (GoE) and a multi-donor team. It is the seventh in a series of annual PERs for Ethiopia and includes both a main report and an annex. The review was conducted from January 24 to February 5, 2000, with a full-day workshop held on February 2, 2000, to discuss preliminary findings.

The Ethiopian Fiscal Year (EFY) runs from July 8 to July 7 and is seven years behind the Gregorian calendar. The Ethiopian Birr (Br) has an exchange rate of US$1.00 = Br 8.239 as of August 12, 2000.

The federal structure of Ethiopia includes nine regional states and two city administrations (Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa). The federal government is responsible for national planning and budgeting, while regions have their own planning and financial bodies.

Main Report Structure

1. Overview and Context

• The PER focuses on strategic public expenditure management.
• The focus topics were identified through consultations between the GoE and donor agencies in Brussels (October 1999).
• The PER aims to shift from analysis to problem-solving and promote a joint federal and regional perspective.
• The main topics include:
  • Information systems for strategic expenditure management
  • Aid management and integration of aid flows
  • Public expenditure - shifting from inputs to results
  • PER process

2. Review of Fiscal Performance

• Fiscal performance weakened during FY98/99 and is expected to deteriorate further in FY99/00.
• Total revenues and external grants are projected to decline by 1.7% of GDP, despite a 0.8% increase in tax revenues due to a 10% import surcharge.
• Non-tax revenues are expected to fall by 1.7% of GDP.
• Total expenditures are projected to decline by almost 1% of GDP, but defense expenditures are expected to rise to 8.1% of GDP, up from 6.9%.
• Fiscal deficit after grants is projected to reach 5.8% of GDP, with domestic financing increasing to 4.2% due to reduced external financing.
• The border conflict has strained aid relationships and threatened development goals by reducing capital and recurrent expenditures in social sectors.
• The unsustainability of the current fiscal stance is highlighted due to rising domestic borrowing and declining foreign exchange reserves.

3. Information Systems for Strategic Expenditure Management

• The government's information management faces several challenges:
  • Delays in receiving information for budget preparation
  • Delays and inaccuracies in expenditure reporting
  • Limited capacity to meet overlapping information demands
  • Weaknesses in horizontal and vertical communication
• The PEP and PIP are central to strategic planning and are part of the MEFF, which provides a three-year outlook for expenditure allocation.
• The budget calendar needs to be statutorily established and followed to enable medium-term planning.
• The Expenditure Management and Control Program is working to improve expenditure reporting through a cost-center approach and phased integration of recurrent and capital budgets.

4. Aid Management and Integration

• External aid constitutes nearly two-thirds of the capital budget for both federal and regional governments.
• Despite innovations like SDPs, many systemic issues remain in aid management.
• The government requires donors to reform their aid practices to allow for multi-year programming.
• The MEFF and SDPs should be synchronized with the regular planning system.
• The GoE has initiated strategic planning exercises such as the Five-year Plan and SDPs.
• Donors should support a unified calendar for dialogue with the government and streamline their demands for strategic planning documents.

5. Public Expenditure - Shifting Attention from Inputs to Results

• The review highlights the need to shift from input-based to result-oriented expenditure management.
• Indicators are key for tracking results and include proxy and lead indicators.
• The PER plays an important role in assessing the track record of public expenditures under the HIPC initiative and in supporting the PRSP and CDF processes.

6. PER Process

• The PER is a key instrument for evaluating the effectiveness of public expenditure.
• It supports the transition from project-based aid to broader support for SDPs and budget support.
• The PER process is expected to enhance the scope of the government's strategic planning and strengthen coordination with donors.

Key Information

• The federal government is responsible for national planning and budgeting, while regions have planning and financial bodies.
• The PER is conducted by a multi-donor team, with the World Bank as the lead institution.
• The government's preference is for channel 1 of aid flow, which involves budget integration.
• Aid management is crucial for public expenditure management, and the government and donors need to collaborate to improve systems.
• The fiscal stress caused by the border conflict and drought has compromised the government's ability to meet its development objectives.
• The PER is a tool for improving the link between public expenditure and poverty reduction, and will be important for the PRSP and CDF.

Main Recommendations

• The government should establish a statutory budget calendar and adhere to it.
• The setting of indicative planning figures should be the pivot of resource allocation.
• The MEFF and PIP should be integrated with the regular planning system.
• Donors should reform their aid practices to allow for multi-year programming.
• The PER process should support the transition from project-based aid to broader support.
• The government should rationalize donor demands and streamline strategic planning documents.
• The federal government should provide indicative medium-term projections of subsidies to support regional planning.

Conclusion

The PER 2000 emphasizes the importance of strategic planning, information systems, and aid integration in public expenditure management. It calls for concerted action from both the government and donors to improve fiscal sustainability, enhance coordination, and shift the focus from inputs to results in public spending. The report also acknowledges the fiscal stress caused by the border conflict and drought, and highlights the need for reform in aid management and expenditure strategy.