20140306-Maybank_KERPL-TFK_at_inflection_point_12页_619kb

报告摘要

TFK's Contribution: TFK, acquired by SATS in Dec 2010, has been a lacklustre contributor to earnings, accounting for 18% of revenue and 6% of EBIT in FY3/13.
Challenges: Poor performance was due to weak meal volumes caused by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, Sino-Japanese political tensions since 2012, and the sharp decline in JPY.
Inflection Point: Despite past performance, TFK is now at an inflection point with anticipated recovery. Positive factors include:
- Rise in China visitation numbers to Japan: Visitor arrivals from China to Japan more than doubled in Jan 2014.
- Growth in JAL's international traffic: JAL's international traffic has been on a steady uptrend, indicating future demand for inflight meals.
- Expanding customer base: TFK's customer base has grown by 31% over the past three years, with potential to win over Singapore Airlines (SIA).

Earnings CAGR: Expected to grow at a 16% CAGR over the next three years, despite a dip in FY3/14E.
Recovery Signal: Improved profits in 3QFY3/14 are seen as a turning point for TFK.

Air Traffic Growth: SATS is positioned to benefit from the structural trend of rising air traffic in the region.
Long-term Outlook: Positive with additional international slots at Haneda Airport and Japan's target to triple visitor arrivals to 30 million by 2030.
ASEAN-Japan Connectivity: A potential regional air services agreement between Japan and ASEAN could boost air traffic and meal volumes.

Metric	FY12A	FY13A	FY14E	FY15E	FY16E
Revenue (SGD m)	1,685.4	1,819.0	1,811.0	1,901.0	1,985.7
EBITDA (SGD m)	266.4	285.2	249.3	277.2	301.7
Core Net Profit (SGD m)	177.5	202.0	180.5	208.1	227.4
Core EPS (cts)	16.0	18.2	16.2	18.7	20.4
Core P/E (x)	18.7	16.5	18.4	16.0	14.6
P/BV (x)	2.2	2.4	2.4	2.3	2.2
Net Dividend Yield (%)	8.7	5.0	4.7	5.0	5.4
ROAE (%)	11.0	13.0	12.0	13.5	14.2
ROAA (%)	8.0	9.8	9.0	10.2	10.8
EV/EBITDA (x)	9.0	11.2	13.0	11.6	10.6
Net Debt/Equity (%)	Net Cash	Net Cash	Net Cash	Net Cash	Net Cash

China-Japan Visitor Growth: China's visitor numbers to Japan have shown a significant increase, with Jan 2014 arrivals doubling compared to Jan 2013.
JPY Depreciation: The depreciation of the JPY has made travel to Japan cheaper, contributing to increased visitation from other countries.
JAL's Expansion: JAL is increasing international capacity, targeting routes to Europe, North America, and Southeast Asia, which bodes well for TFK's meal volumes.
Customer Base Expansion: TFK has expanded its customer base by 31%, with potential to attract more customers like SIA.

Regional Research Head (Singapore): Derrick Heng (65) 6432 1446, derrickheng@maybank-ke.com.sg
Other Contacts:
- WONG Chew Hann (Regional Head of Institutional Research)
- ONG Seng Yeow (Regional Head of Retail Research)
- Alexander GARTHOFF (Institutional Product Manager)
- Suhaimi ILIAS (Chief Economist, Singapore | Malaysia)
- Luz LORENZO (Philippines)
- Tim LEELAHAPHAN (Thailand)
- Juniman (Chief Economist, BII - Indonesia)
- Josua PARDEDE (Economist / Industry Analyst, BII - Indonesia)
- NG Wee Siang (Head of Research, Singapore)
- Gregory YAP (Banking & Finance)
- Wilson LIEW (Technology & Manufacturing - Telcos)
- ONG Kian Lin (S-REITs)
- James KOH (Consumer - Regional)
- YEAK Chee Keong (Offshore & Marine)
- Wilianto IE (Head of Research, Indonesia)
- Rahmi MARINA (Banking & Finance)
- Anthony YUNUS (Property)
- Isnaputra ISKANDAR (Consumer - Poultry)
- Pandy ANUCGRAH (Infrastructure Construction Transport)
- Janni ASMAN (Cigarette • Healthcare • Retail)
- Luz LORENZO (Strategy, Philippines)
- Laura DY-LIACCO (Utilities - Conglomerates - Telcos)
- Lovell SARREAL (Consumer - Media - Cement)
- Rommel RODRIGO (Conglomer)

Reiteration of Buy: Maybank reiterates a BUY recommendation with a DCF-based target price of SGD3.47, using a WACC of 7.6% and a terminal growth rate of 1.0%.
Positive Outlook: The long-term outlook for SATS is positive, driven by the recovery of TFK, increasing air traffic, and the potential for new regional agreements.

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