国际危机组织-尼日尔西南部：防止新的叛乱阵线（英文）-2021.4-31页_899kb

South-western Niger: Preventing a New Insurrection

Core Content

This report examines the growing threat of cross-border banditry in south-western Niger, particularly along the border strip between Maradi and Dogondoutchi. It highlights how this phenomenon, influenced by armed groups from Nigeria, is leading to increased violence, social tensions, and the potential for an armed insurrection. The report also discusses the role of jihadist groups in the region and the need for preventive measures to avoid further destabilisation.

Main Points

1. Escalation of Cross-border Banditry

• Banditry in south-western Niger is a long-standing issue, but it has become more organised and violent in recent years.
• The 2011 Libyan crisis and the security situation in northern Nigerian states (especially Zamfara) have contributed to this escalation.
• Bandits operate across the Niger-Nigeria border, exploiting weak governance and local tensions.
• They steal entire herds, kidnap villagers, and engage in targeted killings, often using weapons smuggled from Libya.
• The Nigerian government's decision to close the border in 2019 reportedly increased the flow of bandits into Niger.

2. New Forms of Violence

• The violence is increasing in scale, with more frequent and severe attacks.
• The crisis of pastoralism is a major driver of this trend, as agricultural expansion and demographic pressure reduce grazing land for herders.
• This has led to conflicts between herders and sedentary farmers, often involving ethnic tensions.
• Some herders are turning to banditry as a means of survival, protection, and even power.

3. Jihadist Influences

• Jihadist groups, including those from the Sahel and northeastern Nigeria, are increasingly interested in the region.
• These groups may exploit the existing communal violence to recruit new fighters.
• The border strip is already a supply corridor for Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), which has established a presence since 2018.
• Bandits and jihadists often share resources and spaces, such as the scattered woods along the border, which serve as refuges for both.

4. Self-defence Groups

• Sedentary communities in the border area are forming self-defence groups to protect themselves from bandits.
• These groups are often composed of Hausa and are supported by local authorities and elected officials.
• However, they tend to exclude Fulani pastoralists, who are stigmatised as bandits, leading to further alienation and potential recruitment into bandit groups.
• The formation of such groups is contributing to the cycle of violence and the risk of ethnic conflict.

5. Security Challenges

• Niger's security forces are stretched thin due to their deployment across the country.
• Cross-border cooperation with Nigeria is necessary but insufficient.
• The region has received less investment compared to other areas like Tillabery and Diffa, which are also facing insurgencies.

Key Recommendations

• Address Pastoralist Grievances: The government should focus on resolving the injustices faced by herders, including land and water rights, to reduce their incentive to join banditry.
• Promote Intercommunal Dialogue: Encouraging dialogue between ethnic groups is essential to preserving social cohesion and preventing conflict escalation.
• Supervise Self-defence Groups: The state must closely monitor these groups to prevent them from becoming militarised and exacerbating tensions.
• Strengthen Border Security: Enhance cooperation with Nigeria and secure the border strip to prevent the spread of violence and jihadist influence.
• Consider Demobilisation Strategies: Negotiations with certain bandit groups could be explored to reduce their threat.

Conclusion

The spread of banditry in south-western Niger is a serious threat that could lead to an armed insurrection. The region's pastoral crisis, communal tensions, and jihadist influences are converging to create an unstable environment. Preventive measures, including addressing grievances, promoting dialogue, and improving security coordination, are crucial to avoiding further destabilisation. The new president of Niger should make the pastoral sector a key policy focus to ensure long-term stability.

Appendices Summary

• Appendix A: Map of the South-western Niger Border Zone.
• Appendix B: Information on the International Crisis Group.
• Appendix C: Overview of Crisis Group reports and briefings on Africa since 2018.
• Appendix D: Crisis Group Board of Trustees.