UNU-WIDER-新冠疫情危机或使全球赤贫人口增至11亿（英文）-2020.6-26页_1mb

Summary of "Precarity and the pandemic" by Andy Sumner, Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez, and Chris Hoy

Core Content

This working paper analyzes the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on poverty incidence, intensity, and severity in developing countries and the global distribution of poverty. The study explores how economic shocks from lockdowns could lead to a significant increase in poverty, particularly among the vulnerable and near-poor populations. The authors use household survey data and contraction scenarios to estimate the potential poverty outcomes.

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Main Points and Key Findings

• Poverty Impact Estimates: The paper presents three contraction scenarios (5%, 10%, and 20%) based on changes in per capita income or consumption due to the pandemic.

• Extreme Poverty (1.90 USD/day):

  • Up to 400 million new poor could be pushed below the $1.90 a day poverty line.
  • The global poverty headcount ratio could increase from 9.9% (status quo) to 11%, 12.2%, or 15.3%, depending on the contraction scenario.
  • The absolute number of poor could rise from 727.3 million to 807.5 million, 898.8 million, or 1,122.3 million under the 5%, 10%, and 20% scenarios, respectively.

• Moderate Poverty (3.20 USD/day):

  • The headcount could increase from 24.7% (status quo) to 26.5%, 28.5%, or 32.6% under the three scenarios.
  • The absolute number of poor could rise by 133 to 576 million people.

• Moderate to High Poverty (5.50 USD/day):

  • The headcount could increase from 43.4% (status quo) to 50.6% under a 20% contraction.
  • The absolute number of poor could rise by 124 to 527 million people.

• Income Losses:

  • The global income shortfall could expand by up to 60%.
  • Daily income losses could amount to $350 million among those living under $1.90 per day and $200 million among those newly pushed into extreme poverty.

• Shift in Poverty Distribution:

  • The location of global poverty is likely to shift towards middle-income countries and South Asia and East Asia.
  • Some middle-income countries that have made progress in poverty reduction could experience a dramatic spike in poverty rates.

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Methodology Overview

• The authors use the World Bank's PovcalNet dataset, which includes harmonized household surveys from 166 economies, to estimate poverty changes.
• They assume a distribution-neutral approach, meaning that the impact is spread evenly across the population, though they acknowledge that this may not reflect the actual vulnerability of the poor and near-poor.
• The contraction scenarios are based on economic shocks from lockdowns and are not tied to country-specific GDP forecasts.
• The augmented poverty line method is used to estimate the new poverty thresholds by increasing the original poverty lines by the contraction rate.

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Key Limitations

• The reference year (2018) is based on extrapolated data, which may not accurately reflect the true poverty rates, especially for India, where the data is based on 2015.
• The assumption of distribution neutrality may not hold, as informal workers and the poor are likely to be hit harder than the general population.
• The economic contraction estimates are based on assumptions rather than observed data, and the duration and severity of the crisis remain uncertain.
• The study does not account for non-monetary impacts such as health, education, and nutrition, which can have long-term effects on human development.
• It also does not include policy responses such as changes to social protection programs.

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Comparison with Other Studies

• The authors compare their findings with estimates from other studies, including those by the ILO, Vos et al., and Laborde et al., as well as Lea, Mahler et al., and Valensisi.
• These studies also use PovcalNet data and IMF growth forecasts, but the authors argue that the IMF's assumption of a fading crisis is overly optimistic.
• The contraction scenarios used in this paper are more severe than those implied by the IMF's growth forecasts, which are based on shorter lockdown periods and less severe economic impacts.
• The headcount rate increases are in the range of 0.8 to 1.1 percentage points, and the number of additional poor is estimated to be 61.9 to 68.6 million, depending on the approach.

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Conclusion

• The paper concludes that the potential impact of the pandemic on poverty is substantial, with estimates suggesting that up to 400 million could be pushed into extreme poverty.
• The global poverty distribution is likely to shift, with more poor people concentrated in middle-income countries and South Asia.
• The authors emphasize that their estimates are indicative, not predictive, and that the actual outcomes will depend on government actions, economic recovery, and social protection measures.
• The study highlights the fragility of poverty reduction in developing countries and the precarious nature of livelihoods in the face of economic shocks.