2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Iceland_2018_Article_IV_Consultation_57页_2mb

Iceland: 2018 Article IV Consultation Summary

Core Content

The IMF conducted its 2018 Article IV consultation with Iceland, assessing the country's economic performance, risks, and policy frameworks. The consultation concluded on November 9, 2018, and the key documents included a Press Release, Staff Report, Staff Supplement, and a Statement by the Executive Director. The summary highlights the economic outlook, fiscal and monetary policies, financial sector oversight, and structural reforms.

Main Views and Key Points

Economic Outlook

• Growth: Strong real GDP growth is expected to continue in 2018, but at a slower pace (around 4 percent), primarily due to moderating tourism growth.
• Unemployment: The unemployment rate is at 2.5 percent, well below its long-run average.
• Inflation: Inflation remains close to target, driven by a robust supply response to past property price increases and slower tourism growth.
• Current Account: Despite an increased goods trade deficit, the current account remains in surplus, expected to settle at about 2 percent of GDP in the medium term.

Risks

• External Risks: Rising oil prices, competitive pressures in the airline sector, escalating trade tensions, and Brexit pose significant risks to Iceland's growth and external position.
• Domestic Risks: Potential excessive wage increases could resurface overheating concerns, and the country's reliance on a few export sectors makes it vulnerable to external shocks.
• Environmental and Natural Risks: Iceland is exposed to elemental hazards such as changing fish migration patterns and volcanic eruptions.

Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal Stance: A broadly neutral fiscal stance is appropriate in the near term, with the government aiming for further debt reduction in the medium term.
• Budget Prioritization: Careful prioritization of expenditures will be necessary to meet budget targets, with less reliance on ad hoc revenues like dividend flows.
• Government Finances: The general government balance for 2017 was a surplus of 1.5 percent of GDP, with a structural primary surplus estimated at 2.4 percent of GDP.

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy

• Monetary Policy: Should remain focused on price stability, with the inflation target reflecting households' spending patterns.
• Exchange Rate: The króna has stopped appreciating, and the central bank has maintained its main policy rate at 4.25 percent since October 2017.
• Reserve Adequacy: The central bank has maintained its reserve adequacy, with official reserves at around $6.5 billion as of mid-2018, equivalent to 152 percent of the Fund's reserve adequacy metric (RAM).

Financial Sector Oversight

• Banking Reform: The government has decided to merge the financial regulator into the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) to create an integrated financial supervisor.
• Pension Funds: The new system should ensure regulatory and operational independence, with a focus on maintaining capacity and resources.
• Capital Flow Measures: The special reserve requirement on selected debt inflows has been halved, and there is support for its gradual removal. However, capital flow management measures should not substitute for necessary macroeconomic adjustments.

Structural Reforms

• Wage Bargaining: Reforms are needed to anchor wage negotiations on productivity and competitiveness.
• Education: Public spending on education should be increased to support long-term competitiveness.
• Tourism: A comprehensive strategy is required to address bottlenecks and include contingency plans.
• Fishing: Ongoing international efforts are needed to ensure sustainable and equitable management of migratory marine species and fishing rights.

Key Information

• GDP Growth: Expected to decline from 7.5 percent in 2016 to around 3.7 percent in 2018.
• Unemployment: Remains at 2.5 percent, below long-run average.
• Inflation: Target is close to being met, with the consumer price index (CPI) at 2.5 percent in 2018.
• Current Account Surplus: Expected to settle at about 2 percent of GDP.
• Public Debt: Net debt is estimated at 30.3 percent of GDP in 2018, with a downward trend since 2017.
• Reserves: Official reserves are stable at around $6.5 billion, covering about 6 months of imports and exceeding the RAM.
• Financial Sector: The three main banks have strong capital and liquidity positions, with NPL ratios at 4.4-5.9 percent as of June 2018.
• Exchange Rate: The króna is assessed as slightly undervalued by the current account gap model, aligning with fundamentals and policy goals.

Summary Table

Conclusion

The IMF Executive Board generally supported the staff's appraisal and welcomed the authorities' efforts to ensure sustainable economic growth. They emphasized the importance of continued prudent macroeconomic and structural policies to address emerging risks and enhance resilience. The integration of financial sector oversight into the central bank and the focus on productivity, education, and competitiveness were seen as positive steps. The country's external position remains broadly in line with fundamentals, but its openness and reliance on a few export sectors make it vulnerable to external shocks.