1998年-BIS国际清算银行_Group_of_Ten_-_The_macroeconomic_and_financial_implications_of_ageing_populations_67页_303kb

Summary of GROUP OF TEN: THE MACROECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF AGEING POPULATIONS

Core Content

This report by the Group of Ten (G-10) central banks and finance ministries examines the macroeconomic and financial implications of population ageing. It highlights the challenges posed by demographic changes, particularly the increasing proportion of elderly individuals in the population, and outlines policy responses to mitigate these effects.

Main Points

Demographic Trends

• Long-term trend: The share of the elderly in G-10 populations has been increasing for the past 150 years due to declining birth rates and rising life expectancy.
• Baby boom impact: The post-World War II baby boom generation will begin retiring in the late 2010s, accelerating the ageing trend.
• Projections:
  • By 2040, the elderly-to-working-age population ratio is expected to rise to 4:10 on average and over 5:10 in some countries.
  • By 2050, the elderly dependency rate is projected to reach as high as 69% in Italy and similar levels in other G-10 countries.
  • Non-G-10 countries are also experiencing demographic shifts, though at a slower pace than G-10 nations.

Implications for Standards of Living

• Ageing increases the number of consumers relative to producers, which can lower material living standards unless offset by productivity gains or increased labour supply.
• Labour force participation: Declining participation rates among older men and rising participation among women are affecting the effective supply of labour.
• GDP growth: Labour force participation rates are projected to decline in most G-10 countries, potentially reducing GDP growth by 0.5 to 1 percentage point per year between 2010 and 2030.
• Productivity: Future growth in productivity and capital accumulation will be crucial in maintaining living standards.

Fiscal Consequences

• Government spending: Increased spending on public retirement benefits, welfare, and healthcare for the elderly will put pressure on government budgets.
• Fiscal deficits: Unless reforms are implemented, budget deficits are expected to grow significantly.
• Policy urgency: Early action is essential to prevent fiscal crises, as the burden of adjustment increases with time.
• Reforms needed:
  • Reduce fiscal deficits and debt.
  • Encourage economic growth and resource efficiency.
  • Address the inefficiencies in public pension systems and promote longer working lives.

Financial Market Effects

• Savings flows: Population ageing will likely increase the flow of savings into private retirement accounts.
• Investment implications: Increased savings may reduce returns and equity premiums, but could also promote financial market diversification and depth.
• Private pension systems: Underfunded pension systems may face pressure unless they are reformed to ensure sustainability.
• Global capital flows: Countries with less pronounced ageing trends may attract more capital, which can help boost productivity and output in more rapidly ageing economies.

Implications for Current Accounts

• Current account surpluses: Countries with more advanced ageing (e.g., Japan, Italy) are currently running current account surpluses.
• Future trends: The more rapid ageing in G-10 countries compared to non-G-10 countries may improve their aggregate current account position for at least the next decade.
• Potential reversal: If saving rates in G-10 countries decline further, the positive current account effects may reverse.
• Global impact: Higher investment from G-10 countries into developing nations can benefit both sides, though the magnitude is uncertain.

Key Policy Considerations

• Encourage economic growth: Reforms should focus on increasing national saving and investment.
• Labor market efficiency: Policies should remove disincentives to work longer and promote actuarially neutral retirement decisions.
• Pension reform: A mixed approach combining public, private, and household savings is recommended for sustainable retirement income.
• Financial market development: Governments should support efficient financial markets and reduce restrictions on capital flows to enhance stability and transparency.
• Global coordination: Well-functioning financial systems in G-10 and non-G-10 countries are essential for managing the financial implications of ageing.
• Avoid protectionism: Shifts in current and capital account positions should not be used as a justification for restricting trade or capital flows.

Conclusion

Population ageing presents significant challenges to living standards, fiscal sustainability, and financial markets. While the effects are inevitable, timely and comprehensive reforms can help mitigate them. These reforms should focus on boosting productivity, improving fiscal balances, and ensuring the efficient allocation of resources and savings. The role of financial markets in facilitating investment and savings is critical, and their development should be supported to ensure long-term economic stability.