战略与国际研究中心-After-Desert-Fox_-Our-Policy-for-the-Gulf-and-Iraq_19页_105kb

Summary of "After Desert Fox: Our Policy for the Gulf and Iraq"

Core Content

The document outlines the U.S. policy towards Iraq and the broader Gulf region following the "Desert Fox" operation, emphasizing the need for a long-term, realistic strategy. It highlights the challenges of containing Saddam Hussein and the complexities of regime change in Iraq, stressing that military and political solutions must be carefully balanced and sustained over time.

Main Views and Key Information

1. The Long-Term Nature of the Problem

• Desert Fox is only the beginning: The operation is a prelude to ongoing challenges with Iraq, Iran, and regional instability.
• No quick solution: There is no easy way to remove Saddam from power or create a stable, pro-American Iraq.
• Containment remains necessary: The U.S. must maintain its military presence and commitment to regional security.

2. The Military Problems in Containment

• U.S. has strong military capabilities: Conventional forces, power projection, and strong alliances with Britain are in place.
• Resource constraints are critical: The U.S. is underfunding its military, leading to low readiness, poor pay, and inadequate facilities.
• Gulf states are not fully capable: They lack the resources and political will to effectively deal with threats from Iraq or Iran.
• Military modernization is needed: The Joint Chiefs estimate a need for $75 billion in annual military modernization, far exceeding current funding levels.

3. Our Policy Towards Iraq

• Realistic and patient approach is essential: The U.S. should support the slow unification of the opposition rather than backing single factions or engaging in covert military actions.
• Avoid making the U.S. a dominant force: Covert operations risk making supported groups appear as traitors and could lead to another "Bay of Pigs" scenario.
• Support for a new regime must be conditional: The new government must demonstrate peaceful intentions, respect human rights, and avoid proliferation.

4. Dealing with the Kurdish Issue

• Respect Kurdish cultural identity: Any new regime must acknowledge Kurdish rights, but not support independence.
• Avoid creating a non-viable mini-state: Kurdish independence would destabilize the region and not benefit the Kurds or the U.S.
• U.S. should not use Kurds as pawns: Past actions have caused harm to Kurdish civilians, and future support must be cautious.

5. Counterproliferation and Arms Control

• UNSCOM and IAEA are ineffective: Iraq is unlikely to cooperate with these bodies, and they are not equipped to monitor all WMD facilities.
• Need for a new arms control regime: The U.S. should work with allies to establish a monitoring system that covers missiles and dual-use chemical/biological facilities.
• Sanctions must be maintained: The U.S. should not lift restrictions on arms imports or dual-use technology, but should allow more oil exports and civil imports.

6. Economic Incentives and Disincentives

• Economic carrots are necessary: The U.S. should offer incentives like debt forgiveness and support for economic recovery.
• Debt and reparations are burdensome: Iraq's total debt and reparations exceed $150 billion, which could hinder its development.
• Oil for Food should be expanded: The U.S. should support liberalizing the program to allow Iraq to export oil at maximum capacity.

7. Regional Security and the Arab-Israeli Peace Process

• Gulf security is a priority: The U.S. must ensure stability in the region, especially with Iran and Iraq.
• Link to Arab-Israeli peace: The U.S. should recognize the connection between regional security and the peace process, but not demand immediate support from Iran or Iraq.
• Balance between security and diplomacy: The U.S. must counter false narratives and support peaceful integration of Iran and Iraq into a regional security structure.

8. Iran's Role and Strategy

• Iran is a serious proliferator: It continues to threaten Gulf security and support extremist movements.
• Moderate faction in Iran: There is a growing moderate group that supports economic development and regional cooperation.
• Containment plus moderation: The U.S. should focus on containment and encourage moderation in Iran through trade and economic relations.

9. Principles for U.S. Policy

• Sovereignty of Kuwait must be respected: Any new Iraqi regime must acknowledge Kuwait's independence.
• Peaceful relations with neighbors: Iraq must avoid terrorism and military threats.
• Human rights and rule of law: The U.S. supports a representative government that respects human rights and the rule of law.

Conclusion

The document stresses that a successful post-Desert Fox policy requires a combination of military strength, political patience, and economic incentives. It calls for a realistic, unambiguous, and consistent approach that supports a stable, non-proliferating, and peaceful Iraq while maintaining strong alliances and regional security. The U.S. must also address its own underfunding of defense and counterproliferation efforts to ensure long-term stability and leadership in the region.