IMF国际货币组织全球-Zambia_Technical-Assistance-Report_20页_948kb

ZAMBIA: Technical Assistance Mission on External Sector Statistics (March 4-15, 2019)

Core Content Overview

This report outlines the outcomes and recommendations of a technical assistance (TA) mission conducted in Zambia by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in March 2019. The mission was part of the UK's Department for International Development (DFID)-funded Enhanced Data Dissemination Initiative (EDDI) 2 Project Module 1, aimed at improving the accuracy, availability, and consistency of external sector statistics, particularly the International Investment Position (IIP) and Balance of Payments (BoP) data.

Main Objectives and Outcomes

• Improvement of External Sector Statistics: The mission focused on enhancing the accuracy, availability, and comparability of external sector data, including the IIP and BoP.
• IIP Compilation and Dissemination: The BOZ compiled and disseminated IIP statistics for 2015–17 and 2017–2018 (first three quarters) ahead of schedule.
• Metadata and Release Calendar: The BOZ published IIP metadata and an updated release calendar on its website in May 2019, in line with the mission’s recommendations.
• Integrated IIP Compilation: The mission recommended the BOZ to compile an integrated IIP on a quarterly basis starting from 2017 to ensure consistency between IIP and BoP statistics.

Key Revisions and Adjustments

• Classification of Deposits: Deposits of nonfinancial enterprises were correctly classified as assets rather than liabilities.
• Market Valuation of Eurobonds: Eurobonds issued by the Government of Zambia were revalued using market prices instead of face value, with a footnote explaining the valuation method.
• Reclassification of Pooled Assets: Reserve assets under pooled schemes (managed by BIS and World Bank) were reclassified as other reserve assets rather than deposits.
• Loan Liabilities: Loans from fellow enterprises were reclassified to avoid double-counting in the IIP.
• Carry-Over Procedure: A carry-over mechanism was adopted to estimate missing data from non-reporting enterprises in quarterly IIP reports.

Priority Recommendations

• Ensure consistency in data sources for IIP and BoP.
• Use market value for Eurobonds and clarify valuation differences in metadata.
• Maintain and update the IIP release calendar to inform users of any changes in schedule.
• Investigate the reasons for large adjustments in net errors and omissions (NEO) by verifying direct payments made by resident enterprises to parent or fellow enterprises abroad.
• Reclassify reserve assets under pooled schemes to other reserve assets.
• Consider renaming "encumbered reserves" to "statutory foreign exchange deposits" for clarity.

Data Collection and Methodological Issues

• Source Data Adequacy: The BOZ has made progress in collecting source data for both IIP and BoP, relying on the quarterly Private Capital Flows (PCF) survey.
• Methodological Inconsistencies: Some BoP components, such as reserve assets, are compiled based on changes in positions rather than actual transactions, leading to potential errors and omissions.
• Missing Data: There is a gap in the data for nonfinancial corporations' external assets, particularly in the BoP.
• Transit Goods: Goods in transit between foreign countries are no longer included in trade statistics, thus eliminating the need for adjustments in the BoP.
• Survey Coverage: The current PCF survey may miss some domestic transactions, such as payments made directly abroad for goods and services provided domestically.

Other Issues and Recommendations

• Social Accounts Matrix (SAM): The BOZ participated in a workshop with ZIPAR and the Central Statistical Office (CSO) to discuss the compilation of SAM for 2010. The mission provided guidance on sourcing data from the BoP and using proxy classifications based on economic characteristics.
• Encumbered Reserves: The BOZ should consider renaming these to "statutory foreign exchange deposits" to avoid misinterpretation.
• Future Work: The BOZ is advised to further investigate the reasons behind the discrepancies in the IIP and BoP data, particularly in the treatment of errors and omissions and the valuation of assets.

Officials Met During the Mission

• Dr. Denny Kalyalya – Governor, Bank of Zambia (BOZ)
• Dr. Francis Chipimo – Deputy Governor Operations, BOZ
• Dr. Ivan Zyuulu – Assistant Director - External Capital Flows, BOZ
• Dr. Francis Mulenga Muma – Senior Economist - External Capital Flows, BOZ
• Ms. Chisala Sofia Ngándwe – Senior Economist - Private Capital Flows, BOZ
• Ms. Mwika Mwenechanya – Senior Economist - Private Capital Flows, BOZ
• Mr. Kafula Longa – Acting Senior Economist - Balance of Payments, BOZ
• Mr. Emmanuel Chokwe – Economist - Balance of Payments, BOZ
• Mr. Wachisa Slbale – Acting Economist - Balance of Payments, BOZ

Conclusion

The mission concluded that the BOZ has made commendable progress in improving external sector statistics. Continued efforts are needed to address data gaps, enhance the accuracy of valuations, and ensure methodological consistency between the IIP and the Balance of Payments. The recommendations provided are aimed at supporting the BOZ in achieving these goals and improving transparency and data quality for the benefit of policymakers and the public.