布鲁金斯学会-拜登的中国战略：联盟驱动的竞争还是冷战式的对抗（英文）-2021.5-14页_256kb

Biden's China Strategy: Coalition-Driven Competition or Cold War-Style Confrontation?

Core Content

The Biden administration's approach to China has been characterized as a mix of competition, cooperation, and confrontation, with a focus on coalition building as a key strategy. This reflects a departure from the Trump administration's more unilateral and confrontational stance, yet it continues to emphasize strategic competition with China. The document explores whether this approach is leading the world toward a new Cold War-style bloc or a more cooperative and multilateral framework.

Main Views and Key Information

U.S. Strategy: Coalition-Driven Competition

• The Biden administration has prioritized international coalition building to counter China's global influence.
• Key actions include:
  • Strengthening alliances with Japan, South Korea, India, and the EU.
  • Hosting the Quad Security Dialogue Summit with Japan, Australia, and India.
  • Engaging in naval exercises and economic coordination with allies.
• Secretary of State Antony Blinken has emphasized "competitive when it should be, collaborative when it can be, and adversarial when it must be" in U.S.-China relations.
• The administration has reversed some Trump-era policies (e.g., banning terms like "Chinese virus"), but many of the Trump team's actions remain in place.

China's Response: Strengthening Alliances

• China has deepened its diplomatic, economic, and military ties with Russia and Iran.
• The China-Iran strategic cooperation agreement (25-year) includes:
  • Increased investment in Iran's energy infrastructure.
  • Use of the Chinese yuan and digital currency for trade.
  • Adoption of Beidou for navigation to avoid U.S. GPS interference.
• This reflects a shift from passive defense to proactive engagement in Chinese foreign policy.
• Chinese media and analysts are skeptical of U.S. claims of not seeking confrontation, viewing the Biden team as not fundamentally different from the Trump administration.

Concerns Over Taiwan

• The invitation of Taiwan's representative to Biden's inauguration was seen as a provocative act by Beijing.
• Biden's military and diplomatic moves in the region, including:
  • Encouraging Japan and Australia to prepare for intervention.
  • Signing a maritime patrol agreement with Taiwan.
  • Promoting official exchanges with Taiwan.
  • Inviting the U.S. ambassador to Palau to visit Taiwan.
• These actions have escalated tensions across the Taiwan Strait and led to increased anti-American rhetoric in China.

Limits of a Cold War-Style Bloc

• The U.S.-led bloc is not universally supported.
  • European leaders like Angela Merkel and Boris Johnson have expressed reluctance to form such blocs.
  • Many European countries prefer economic cooperation with China on issues like climate change and nuclear nonproliferation.
• In Asia, the Quad is not a military alliance but a strategic forum.
• Japanese and Indian leaders have cautious stances on forming a "mini-NATO".
• African and South American countries generally do not view China as a threat, and many trade with China more than with the U.S.

Domestic and Competitive Factors

• U.S. domestic politics:
  • There is no consensus on China policy between Republicans and Democrats.
  • The bipartisan "Strategic Competition Act" aims to fund ideological, military, economic, and technological initiatives against China.
  • Public opinion has turned increasingly negative toward China, influenced by issues like Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and the pandemic.
• China's competitive edge:
  • China's GDP per capita has grown significantly, reaching $10,000 in 2020.
  • China is expected to surpass the U.S. in GDP by 2028.
  • China has caught up in R&D investment and is investing heavily in infrastructure.
  • The U.S. has seen a decline in R&D funding and increased corporate investment in China.

Conclusion

• The document suggests that the Biden administration's strategy is not a full return to cooperation, but rather a continuation of strategic competition with China.
• Henry Kissinger warns that endless competition between the U.S. and China could lead to unforeseen escalation and conflict.
• The current situation is more dangerous than the Cold War due to AI and futuristic weapons.
• Both countries must find new ways to coexist, as total war is not an option.

Final Thoughts

• The geopolitical landscape is evolving toward two competing blocs, with the U.S. leading one and China, Russia, and Iran forming the other.
• The U.S. and China are now almost equally powerful, and the future of their relationship is uncertain.
• The risk of confrontation is high, but cooperation in areas like climate change and economic recovery remains a potential path forward.

References

• Brzezinski, Zbigniew. The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives.
• Blinken, Antony. Remarks on U.S.-China relations.
• Yang Jiechi. Comment on the U.S. strategy during the Anchorage dialogue.
• Kissinger, Henry. Warnings on U.S.-China competition.