2008年-世界发展银行全球_Global_Development_Finance_2008___The_Role_of_International_Banking_Volume_2_Summary_and_Country_Tables_463页_14mb

Summary of Global Development Finance 2008

Core Content

The Global Development Finance (GDF) 2008 report is a comprehensive statistical publication by the World Bank, providing detailed external debt and resource flow data for 134 developing countries. It is part of a two-volume annual report, with Volume I focusing on analysis and Volume II containing statistical tables. The report also includes a Little Data Book for quick reference and a CD-ROM with a database of 215 time series indicators, covering the period from 1970 to 2006, and "pipeline" data up to 2014.

The GDF 2008 data are based on the Debtor Reporting System (DRS), which is maintained by the World Bank. It is the sole repository for external debt statistics on a loan-by-loan basis. The report also includes data from creditors for short-term debt, which is not always fully reported by debtors.

Main Points

1. Data Sources and Methodology

• The DRS is the primary data source, with contributions from national central banks, ministries of finance, and multilateral organizations.
• The World Bank uses IMF par values or central rates to convert data to U.S. dollars for aggregation.
• Short-term debt is not fully reported by most debtors, so estimates are derived from creditor data.
• Private nonguaranteed debt is included in the report, and its data are usually based on creditor records.

2. Debt Classification

• Long-term debt is defined as debt with an original or extended maturity of more than one year.
• It is categorized into:
  • Public debt: Debt owed by public entities.
  • Publicly guaranteed debt: Debt guaranteed by public entities for private debtors.
  • Private nonguaranteed debt: Debt not guaranteed by public entities.
• Short-term debt is defined as debt with an original maturity of one year or less.

3. Debt Flows and Stocks

• Total debt stocks (EDT) include:
  • Public and publicly guaranteed long-term debt.
  • Private nonguaranteed long-term debt.
  • Use of IMF credit.
  • Short-term debt.
• Total debt flows are calculated as:
  • Disbursements, principal repayments, and interest payments.
  • Net flows are derived by subtracting principal repayments and interest payments from disbursements and IMF purchases.

4. Debt Restructuring and Arrears

• The DRS tracks arrears in both principal and interest.
• Interest in arrears is considered short-term debt, while principal in arrears is shown as a memorandum item.
• Debt restructuring is captured as imputed flows in the WBXD system, reflecting changes in liability structure rather than actual cash flows.
• Debt reorganization can lead to changes in creditor and debtor status, such as shifting from private to official creditors.

5. Projections and Estimations

• The WBXD system is used to project:
  • Future disbursements of unutilized commitments.
  • Future debt service payments.
• Disbursement projections use:
  • Specific schedules from debtor countries.
  • Standard schedules based on historical disbursement patterns.
• Debt service projections are calculated using the repayment terms of loans, with assumptions about full utilization of commitments and full repayment.

6. IMF Credit and Data Conversion

• IMF credit is included in the report, covering:
  • Trust fund (TF) and special facilities (e.g., PRGF, SAF).
• Data are converted using end-of-period exchange rates for stocks and average exchange rates for flows.

7. Limitations and Considerations

• The data are subject to preliminary and revision.
• Exchange rate fluctuations can lead to discrepancies in debt calculations.
• Currency composition of public debt affects the estimation of net flows.
• Balance of payments data and financial surveys are used where formal registration is not required.

Key Information

• The report includes country-specific tables and regional/income group aggregates.
• The main cutoff date for data is December 2007.
• Short-term debt is estimated using creditor data, particularly from the BIS quarterly series.
• Debt restructuring is not directly visible in the main body of the report but is reflected in the resulting debt stocks and flows.
• The WBXD system is used to project future disbursements and debt service payments.
• IMF credit is presented as repurchase obligations and includes various facilities.
• Data on interest arrears and debt forgiveness are included, with implications for debt classification.

Conclusion

The Global Development Finance 2008 report is a vital resource for understanding the external debt landscape of developing countries. It provides detailed statistical tables, projections, and methodological insights to help assess debt sustainability and financial health. The data are compiled with careful attention to exchange rates, creditor/debtor status, and debt restructuring, offering a nuanced view of international financial flows. However, due to the preliminary nature of some data and the complexity of debt categorization, users must interpret the information with caution and consider the contextual factors that influence debt statistics.