新兴市场下一步是什么（英文版）_33页_2mb

Summary of "WHAT'S NEXT IN EMERGING MARKETS"

Core Content

This report explores the growth dynamics in emerging markets through the lens of beer and snacks, highlighting five key markets — Vietnam, Argentina, Brazil, Ghana, and Côte d'Ivoire — that are experiencing significant growth and transformation. The analysis focuses on consumer behavior, macroeconomic trends, and the impact of policy changes on market opportunities.

Main Points

• Emerging Markets as Growth Engines: Over the past decade, emerging markets have contributed 80% to global growth, according to the IMF. These markets are becoming more attractive for FMCG (Fast-Moving Consumer Goods) companies due to rising incomes, population growth, and favorable GDP forecasts.

• Snacks as a Growth Indicator: Snacks are a strong indicator of consumer readiness to spend on non-essentials. Global snack sales grew by $3.4 billion in 2017. In Asia Pacific, both volume and value sales are increasing, while in other regions, value sales are up with stable volume.

• Healthy and Portable Snacks Trend: Consumers are increasingly seeking healthier, more convenient options. This trend is evident in the growth of healthy food and drink sales, with specific examples from India, Costa Rica, and Vietnam.

• Policy Trends and Health Awareness: Governments are implementing policies to combat health issues, such as sugar taxes and advertising reforms. These are pushing companies to innovate in value, private label, and premium products.

• Connected and Convenient Consumers: The rise of digital connectivity is influencing consumer behavior, with a growing number of "connected spenders" who are more informed and spend more online. These consumers are key to future growth in emerging markets.

Key Markets and Opportunities

Vietnam

• Economic Growth: Vietnam has a high GDP growth rate and a fast-growing FMCG industry. It is expected to be the third most populous country in Southeast Asia by 2025.

• Urban and Rural Shift: Urbanization is driving growth, especially in mid- to high-density cities. Rural areas, though growing, remain a strategic opportunity for FMCG companies.

• Market Structure: Traditional trade channels still dominate, accounting for 83% of FMCG sales. However, modern trade is growing rapidly, especially through local mini marts.

• Growth by Tier: Lower and premium price tiers are showing the most growth in FMCG sales. Local brands are outperforming global players, with 47% growth in snack sales since 2016.

Argentina

• Economic Recovery: Argentina's GDP is expected to recover to pre-2016 levels by 2018. Consumers are shifting towards cheaper grocery store brands and private labels.

• Price Tier Performance: Low-tier and premium-tier products are growing significantly, with low-tier sales increasing by 27.9% and premium-tier by 26.8% in MAT Q3 2017.

• Local Brands Lead: Local manufacturers are driving snack growth, with 47% increase in sales since 2016. They are better at understanding local tastes and adapting to consumer needs.

• Connected Consumers: By 2025, 11 million connected spenders are expected to spend $218 billion, indicating a shift in consumer spending power and digital engagement.

Brazil

• Economic Recovery: Brazil's FMCG market is recovering, with low inflation and relaxed monetary policy boosting GDP forecasts.

• Private Label Growth: Private label and low-priced items are driving growth in the modern trade channel. Super premium and premium beers are seeing growth despite economic downturns.

• Millennials and Premium Products: Millennials are the main drivers of FMCG volume declines but are also key to premium product growth. Connected consumers are expected to spend over half a billion by 2025.

• Digital Influence: Mobile campaigns have increased significantly, with a 15.9X rise in mobile component campaigns from 2015 to 2016. Brands must leverage digital media and convenience to win in Brazil.

Ghana

• Economic Growth: Ghana is expected to be the fastest-growing African country in 2018 with a 7.8% GDP growth. The economy is supported by oil and gas, agriculture, and favorable tax policies.

• Consumer Confidence: Inflation is at a three-year low, increasing consumer confidence. 40% of consumers say they can afford to buy what they need or want.

• FMCG Growth: Total FMCG growth in 2017 was 14.0%, almost double that of South Africa. Beverages and food categories are leading, with rural areas showing the highest growth rates.

• Beer and Healthy Drinks: Fruitier and flavored beer categories are growing rapidly, indicating a shift towards healthier and more diverse options. Multinational companies still dominate the beer market, but local players have significant potential.

Key Trends

• Healthy and Indulgent Balance: Consumers are not trading convenience for quality; they are looking for products that are both healthy and enjoyable.

• Digital Transformation: The rise of connected consumers is reshaping retail and marketing strategies. Companies must adapt to digital trends and offer convenience and personalization.

• Local Innovation: Local manufacturers are outperforming global players in many emerging markets, especially in snacks and beer. They are better at capturing local preferences and adapting to market changes.

• Urbanization and Distribution: As urbanization progresses, companies must focus on distribution models that cater to both urban and rural consumers. This includes modern trade expansion and efficient supply chains.

• Premiumization: Emerging markets are seeing a shift towards premium products, especially in beer and snacks, driven by consumer demand for better quality and unique flavors.

Conclusion

Emerging markets are experiencing a renaissance in FMCG growth, driven by economic expansion, rising incomes, and changing consumer preferences. Companies that adapt to local needs, embrace digital strategies, and invest in premium and healthy products are likely to succeed in these markets. Vietnam, Argentina, Brazil, and Ghana are at the forefront of this transformation, offering significant opportunities for growth and innovation.